Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (DJIA), S&P 500 ve Nasdaq Bile\u015fik Endeksi gerilerken 50.700 civar\u0131nda g\u00fcn ortas\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131da kald\u0131. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc teknoloji hisseleri daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterirken, \u201cmavi \u00e7ip\u201d (piyasan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ve en oturmu\u015f \u015firket hisseleri) taraf\u0131 geride kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Procter & Gamble %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi, Home Depot %2\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131; bu iki hisse, **fiyat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131** olan Dow\u2019u (a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u015firket b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne de\u011fil hisse fiyat\u0131na g\u00f6re belirlendi\u011fi endeks) destekledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Zscaler, daha zay\u0131f **y\u00f6nlendirme** (\u015firketin gelecek d\u00f6nem beklentileri) nedeniyle %30\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve Palo Alto Networks ile CrowdStrike\u2019\u0131 da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Micron ise Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %19 s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p \u015firket de\u011ferini 1 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131ktan sonra, ilk ivme s\u00f6n\u00fcnce y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte zorland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol de geriledi: WTI %3\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inerken, Brent 99 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki trafi\u011fin bir ay i\u00e7inde sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc; Beyaz Saray ise bunu \u201ctamamen uydurma\u201d diye niteledi. Dow yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,25 art\u0131da olsa da bu haftaki 51.000 civar\u0131ndaki zirvenin birka\u00e7 y\u00fcz puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; gece 50.800\u2019e do\u011fru denemenin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetti. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 Per\u015fembe 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilere \u00e7evrildi: **\u00e7ekirdek PCE** (g\u0131da ve enerjiyi hari\u00e7 tutan, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi), 1\u00c7 **GSYH** (ekonominin toplam b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc), i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve **dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal** verisi (uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcn sipari\u015fleri). \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 gelmesi bekleniyor (\u00f6nceki %3,2); T\u00dcFE yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,8. Fed\u2019in politika faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 band\u0131nda. **CME FedWatch** (vadeli i\u015flemlerden t\u00fcretilen faiz beklentisi g\u00f6stergesi) Haziran\u2019da faiz indirimi olmama ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %70, indirim ihtimalini %30\u2019un biraz alt\u0131nda g\u00f6steriyor. Teknik olarak 50.800 diren\u00e7, 50.500 ard\u0131ndan 50.000 destek konumunda.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Dow\u2019daki mevcut g\u00fcc\u00fc \u201cg\u00fcven\u201d i\u015fareti de\u011fil, uyar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Para, b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 teknoloji hisselerinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p t\u00fcketim temel \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ve sanayi gibi **defansif** (ekonomik dalgalanmalarda daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131) sekt\u00f6rlere kay\u0131yor; bu, klasik bir **riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f** (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) rotasyonu. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131, XLP gibi defansif **ETF**\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) **al\u0131m opsiyonu** (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131, ayn\u0131 anda teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 QQQ\u2019da **sat\u0131m opsiyonu** (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, \u00f6nemli ekonomik veriler \u00f6ncesinde tedirgin ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. **VIX** (piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endeksi; \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d denir) bu ay ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 14 seviyesinden 18\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha fazla **koruma** (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi) arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Portf\u00f6y **risk azaltma** (hedge: olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alma) ama\u00e7l\u0131, S&P 500\u2019de **paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda** (out-of-the-money: kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u015fu an avantajl\u0131 olmayan, daha ucuz) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 ekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi, h\u0131zla tersine d\u00f6nebilecek zay\u0131f s\u00f6ylentilere dayan\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na dair jeopolitik haberler, birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde petrolde %5\u201310 oynakl\u0131k yaratabiliyor. Bu nedenle USO (United States Oil Fund) \u00fczerinde **straddle** (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketin y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z kazan\u00e7 hedefleme) kullan\u0131yoruz; bu sakinli\u011fin sert bi\u00e7imde bozulmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Her \u015fey yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyon verisine ba\u011fl\u0131. CME FedWatch, piyasan\u0131n Haziran\u2019da faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na zaten \u015f\u00fcpheyle bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, %3,3 beklentisinin \u00fczerinde \u201cdaha s\u0131cak\u201d (beklentiden y\u00fcksek) bir veri neredeyse kesin \u015fekilde sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Enflasyon \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen) kal\u0131rsa olumsuz piyasa tepkisinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in SPY \u00fczerinde **put spread** (bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p ba\u015fka bir sat\u0131m opsiyonunu daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, kazanc\u0131\/zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) planl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar veri \u00f6ncesi gerildi: Dow s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131da, S&P 500 ve Nasdaq ekside. Defansiflere kay\u0131\u015f h\u0131zland\u0131, VIX y\u00fckseldi. Petrol 90 dolar alt\u0131na indi. Yar\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek PCE kritik. Opsiyonlarla hedge\/strateji \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47513"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47513\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}