Piyasalar, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) haziranda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda; bu ad\u0131m s\u00fcrprizden \u00e7ok sembolik bir hamle olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme yakla\u015fabilece\u011fine dair beklentiler artt\u0131k\u00e7a, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faizlerin daha da art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) beklentisi zay\u0131flad\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimali ise, haziran art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 engelleyecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e olarak de\u011ferlendirilmiyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilimin yeniden t\u0131rmanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u201cikinci tur etkiler\u201d (enerji gibi ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, zamanla \u00fccret ve di\u011fer fiyatlara yay\u0131larak enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi bir senaryoda, ECB\u2019nin bu tek ad\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan durmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; odak, art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden \u00e7ok bankan\u0131n \u201ctepki fonksiyonuna\u201d (ECB\u2019nin enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme gibi verilere bakarak faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l verdi\u011fine) kay\u0131yor. Piyasalar\u0131n ima etti\u011fi art\u0131\u015f 25 baz puan (faizde 0,25 puan) ve bu, euronun aleyhine olacak uzun vadeli daha geni\u015f bir yeniden fiyatlama alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadede ise \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n bitmesi; daha zay\u0131f ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD), Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcme alg\u0131s\u0131nda toparlanma ve genel olarak yatay ECB faiz beklentileriyle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin 11 Haziran\u2019daki beklenen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n mevcut piyasa fiyatlar\u0131na zaten yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (faiz beklentilerini g\u00f6steren t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %95 olarak i\u015faret ediyor; bu nedenle karar\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeni ve belirgin bir oynakl\u0131k yaratmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda as\u0131l izlenecek ba\u015fl\u0131k, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n bitmesi, euronun g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in ana tetikleyici olur. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimali Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 102 dolara \u00e7ekti; bu da enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r. Avrupa ekonomisi i\u00e7in bu rahatlama, b\u00f6lgeye yat\u0131r\u0131m ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (stres d\u00f6nemlerinde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) etkisini zay\u0131flat\u0131r; bunu daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6rd\u00fck. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi, Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er) iki ayda %8\u2019den fazla gerilemesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Resmi bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rsa benzer, ancak muhtemelen daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir hareket bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuruna ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, EUR\/USD kurunda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almaya i\u015faret ediyor. 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) belirsizlik nedeniyle %9,8 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrederken, temmuz vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) \u201cspread\u201dleri (bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir di\u011ferini satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme) almay\u0131 cazip buluyoruz. Bu strateji, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin daha istikrarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle olu\u015fabilecek yukar\u0131 potansiyeli hedeflerken, opsiyonlar\u0131n \u015fu anki y\u00fcksek maliyetini k\u0131smen dengeler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar ECB\u2019nin haziranda 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse kesin g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; s\u00fcrpriz beklenmiyor. \u0130ran gerilimi d\u00fc\u015ferse ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma zay\u0131flar, petrol geriler, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman\u0131 s\u00f6n\u00fcp euroyu destekler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47509","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47509"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47509\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}