Alt\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. XAU\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.400 dolar dip seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan 4.440 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu, 30 Mart\u2019tan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en zay\u0131f seviye. \u0130ran Devlet Televizyonu, Tahran ile Washington\u2019un, ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin \u0130ran\u2019dan \u00e7ekilmesi ve deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ticari ge\u00e7i\u015fi bir ay i\u00e7inde sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere geri getirmesini i\u00e7eren, gayriresm\u00ee bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 (MOU: taraflar\u0131n niyet ve \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi yaz\u0131l\u0131 olarak ortaya koydu\u011fu, ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 anla\u015fma metni) i\u00e7in ilk taslak \u00fczerinde anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ABD ise daha sonra haberi \u201ctamamen uydurma\u201d diye reddetti. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama Dolar\u2019a toparlanma getirdi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: Dolar\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinden olu\u015fan sepete kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n kabine toplant\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada 99,20 civar\u0131nda seyretti; Avrupa seans\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 99,00\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Petrol ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) riski, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 beklentilerini (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon da (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) alt\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Piyasalar Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE verisini ve Fed yetkililerinin konu\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, Bollinger Band\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n ortalama etraf\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) alt band\u0131 olan 4.422 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ve 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama: son 20 d\u00f6nemin ortalama fiyat\u0131) bulundu\u011fu 4.594 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131\/ivmesini \u00f6l\u00e7er) 37, ADX (trend g\u00fcc\u00fc endeksi: trendin ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir) 22 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Diren\u00e7 4.594 ard\u0131ndan 4.767 dolar; destek ise 4.422 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.350 ve 4.100 dolar seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki her yeni haber ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na tepki verirken, yak\u0131n vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirsizlik taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekilleniyor. \u00c7eli\u015fkili a\u00e7\u0131klamalar \u201cba\u015fl\u0131k riski\u201dni (haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zla oynatmas\u0131) art\u0131r\u0131yor ve k\u0131sa vadede tek y\u00f6ne bahse girmek riskli hale geliyor. Bu nedenle yak\u0131n vadede net bir trend yerine \u201coynakl\u0131\u011fa\u201d (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) dayal\u0131 stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ba\u015fl\u0131k enflasyon olmaya devam ediyor; y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyonu yukar\u0131 itiyor. Son PCE (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131: ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden hesaplanan, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) raporu, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d enflasyon, Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminde acele etmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Fed politika faizi (Fed Funds Rate: bankalar aras\u0131 gecelik faiz oran\u0131) %5,50 ile s\u0131k\u0131 seviyede kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, getiri sa\u011flamayan bir varl\u0131k olan alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n maliyeti y\u00fckseliyor. Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: gelecekteki faiz beklentisini fiyatlayan piyasalar) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Bu temel bask\u0131n\u0131n (makro etki) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde etkili olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, alt\u0131n 4.422 dolar deste\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkarsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu y\u00f6ntem, 4.350 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, azami riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Ay\u0131 put spread\u2019i (bear put spread: bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) de bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini azaltmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ani bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 sert, ancak muhtemelen ge\u00e7ici, bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yaratabilir. Bu iki ihtimalli (binary: sonu\u00e7lardan birinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine ba\u011fl\u0131) riski dengelemek i\u00e7in straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m opsiyonu hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketin y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z kazan\u00e7 hedefler) stratejisi de de\u011ferlendiriliyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda net bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm, her iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat hareketi \u00fcretebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde alt\u0131n, jeopolitik korkuyla h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmi\u015f; ard\u0131ndan piyasa dikkatini merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6neltince geri \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti. Bar\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f de, temeldeki \u201c\u015fahin\u201d para politikas\u0131 (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) nedeniyle benzer bir bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir. \u015eimdilik 4.350 dolar seviyesi kritik e\u015fik olarak izleniyor; bu seviyenin alt\u0131na ini\u015f, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 teyit edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131nda: XAU\/USD 4.440 dolarda, 30 Mart\u2019tan beri en zay\u0131f. \u0130ran-ABD MOU iddias\u0131 ve yalanlama dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. PCE\/Fed g\u00fcndemde; 4.422 kritik destek, 4.350 alt\u0131 risk. Oynakl\u0131k stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47508\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}