AUD\/NZD, Nisan 2013\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra geri \u00e7ekildi. May\u0131s i\u015flemlerinin karars\u0131z seyretmesi, bir y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcren y\u00fckseli\u015fi k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getirdi. Geri \u00e7ekilmenin temel nedeni faiz beklentilerindeki yeniden fiyatlama: Piyasalar Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) birden fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapabilece\u011fini fiyatlarken, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) beklemede kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu durum iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 (faiz makas\u0131) ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 etkiliyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik seviyeler de izleniyor. Parite 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamay\u0131 (SMA: fiyat\u0131n son 50 g\u00fcn ortalamas\u0131) 1,2130\u2019da test etti. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda bir kapan\u0131\u015f, k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir ve uzun ralli sonras\u0131 daha sert bir d\u00fczeltmenin (h\u0131zl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme) \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Daha orta vadede paritenin y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde 1,20 b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131nda dengelenmesi bekleniyor. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da toparlanman\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 erken a\u015famada oldu\u011fu, ekonomide bir s\u00fcre daha kullan\u0131lmayan kapasite bulundu\u011fu, i\u015fsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi; ayr\u0131ca daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla talebi so\u011futma) b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
AUD\/NZD\u2019deki sert geri \u00e7ekilme nedeniyle bir y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin ciddi risk alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Paritenin 1,2130\u2019daki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle paritede bask\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi) trader\u2019lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu tablo, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme zaman\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Temmuz veya A\u011fustos vadeli AUD\/NZD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczeltmeden do\u011frudan faydalanman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir. Alternatif olarak ay\u0131 sat\u0131m spread\u2019i (bear put spread: bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put satarak maliyeti azaltma) premi\u0307yumu (opsiyon bedeli) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketten kazan\u00e7 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, merkez bankas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki ayr\u0131\u015fma ile de destekleniyor. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi\/enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi beklentinin \u00fczerinde %1,1 geldi ve y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu %4,5\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu seviye RBNZ\u2019nin hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Avustralya\u2019da enflasyon \u00e7eyreklik bazda daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 %0,8 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131; bu da RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine alan tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u201cDaha sert d\u00fczeltme\u201d ihtimali, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) artabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na da geliyor. Paritenin z\u0131mni volatilitesindeki (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseli\u015f\u2014bu ay %6,5\u2019ten %7,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda\u2014opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r, ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinin beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret eder. Y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayan ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket bekleyenler i\u00e7in uzun strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put alma) gibi stratejiler cazip olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer politika ayr\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 hareketler \u00fcretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2014\u2019te RBNZ\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 AUD\/NZD\u2019yi alt\u0131 ayda %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da i\u015fsizlik %4,4 ile baz\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k sinyalleri verse de, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ana oda\u011f\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, RBA ile RBNZ aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdilik belirleyici ana unsur olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/NZD\u2019de alarm: 2013\u2019ten beri zirve sonras\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme h\u0131zland\u0131. RBNZ faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, RBA bekle-g\u00f6r; makas daral\u0131yor. 1,2130 (50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA) alt\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctebilir; opsiyonla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\/volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47506\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}