Kanada Dolar\u0131, di\u011fer G10 para birimleri de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Scotiabank, bu zay\u0131f performans\u0131 Kanada\u2019n\u0131n risk alg\u0131s\u0131na ve Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, piyasalar\u0131n BoC\u2019nin daha \u201cyumu\u015fak\u201d (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) bir patika izleyece\u011fini, Fed\u2019in ise daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filiminde) kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla faiz farklar\u0131na yans\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde banka, USD\/CAD\u2019in y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ancak diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; \u201cmomentum\u201dun (fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) kritik \u201chareketli ortalamalar\u201d (fiyat\u0131n belli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalamas\u0131yla olu\u015fan takip g\u00f6stergeleri) civar\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Scotiabank\u2019\u0131n temel de\u011ferleme \u00e7er\u00e7evesi de CAD\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; USD\/CAD i\u00e7in \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201d (temel verilere g\u00f6re makul seviye) tahminini 1,3672\u2019ye koyuyor. K\u0131sa vadede bant hareketi bekleyen banka, Kanada verileri beklentileri a\u015farsa CAD\u2019de toparlanma alan\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in ana etkenin BoC ile Fed politikalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u201cGecelik endeks swaplar\u0131\u201d (OIS: piyasadaki faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) art\u0131k BoC\u2019nin 5 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131l\u0131yor. ABD taraf\u0131nda ise ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi (PCE: Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin %2,8 gelmesi, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimini) korumas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, Kanada ve ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 -70 \u201cbaz puan\u201da (bps; 1 baz puan = %0,01) ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu seviye 2005 sonundan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Artan faiz fark\u0131, Kanada dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (elde tutmay\u0131) daha az cazip hale getirerek CAD i\u00e7in belirgin bir bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu dinamik, USD\/CAD\u2019in \u015fimdilik y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na neden olabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n USD\/CAD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f iste\u011fi belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; parite 1,3850 \u201cdiren\u00e7\u201d seviyesinin (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 olmay\u0131 tekrar tekrar ba\u015faram\u0131yor. Bu teknik duraksama, faiz ortam\u0131 destekleyici olsa da piyasan\u0131n pariteyi daha yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131makta isteksiz oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Modellerimiz, paritenin temel adil de\u011ferini 1,3672\u2019ye daha yak\u0131n g\u00f6steriyor; bu da Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n mevcut seviyelerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
CAD neden g\u00fc\u00e7lenemiyor? BoC\u2019nin 5 Haziran\u2019da %85 faiz indirimi beklentisi ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k fark\u0131 -70 bps\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; USD\/CAD 1,3850\u2019de diren\u00e7, adil de\u011fer 1,3672.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47503"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47503\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}