ABD Redbook Endeksi, 22 May\u0131s\u2019ta sona eren haftada y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %9 y\u00fckseldi. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki %8,1\u2019lik seviyeye k\u0131yasla izlenen perakende sat\u0131\u015flarda y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu hareket, \u00f6nceki orana g\u00f6re 0,9 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Endeks, ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131ndaki e\u011filimleri s\u0131k aral\u0131klarla izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan h\u0131zl\u0131 bir g\u00f6sterge olarak takip ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu son Redbook verisini, t\u00fcketicinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn net bir i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n %9\u2019a h\u0131zlanmas\u0131, baz\u0131 kesimlerin endi\u015fe etti\u011fi gibi harcama ivmesinin zay\u0131flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep, \u015fu anda ekonominin temel dayanaklar\u0131ndan biri.<\/p>\n
Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, enflasyon \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir; nitekim Nisan ay\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) %3,6 seviyesinde. Bu nedenle, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (faizleri indirmeye isteksiz, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 politika yanl\u0131s\u0131 tutum) koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve piyasadaki faiz indirimi beklentilerine mesafeli kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki politika faizine dair beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) son haftalarda Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %25\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu trendden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (zorunlu olmayan harcamalar) ve perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) bak\u0131yoruz; XRT gibi. XRT bu y\u0131l %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fken, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti ve riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren yap\u0131) kullanabiliriz. Bu sayede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00e2r a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n getirebilece\u011fi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
Faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalma ihtimali, tahvil taraf\u0131nda temkinli olmam\u0131za neden oluyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizin yeniden %4,5\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckselmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bu senaryoya oynayabilmek i\u00e7in Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makro verilerin tahvil piyasas\u0131nda Fed politikas\u0131na dair beklentilerin h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi ile \u201c\u015fahin\u201d Fed aras\u0131ndaki bu gerilim, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasada dalgal\u0131 ve y\u00f6ns\u00fcz hareketleri art\u0131rabilir. VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (VIX: piyasa oynakl\u0131k endeksi; opsiyon bozulmalar\u0131yla \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen beklenen dalgalanma) olas\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir ara\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Fed\u2019in bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda gelebilecek beklenenden daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir mesaj, halen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde bulunan oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri: ABD Redbook y\u0131ll\u0131k %9\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, t\u00fcketici harcamas\u0131 canl\u0131. Bu, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu uzatabilir. XRT\u2019de call spread, tahvilde put, VIX\u2019te koruma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47501\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}