ABD\u2019de ADP istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 2 May\u0131s itibar\u0131yla 35,75 bin oldu. \u00d6nceki 42,25 bin seviyesine g\u00f6re gerileyen bu veri, son d\u00f6rt haftada \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Mutlak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f 6,50 bin. Buna ra\u011fmen ortalama h\u00e2l\u00e2 pozitif; bu da ADP \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcne g\u00f6re istihdam\u0131n artmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ADP istihdam ortalamas\u0131ndaki gerilemeyi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131 ve i\u015fe al\u0131m e\u011filimi) so\u011fuman\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir erken sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. D\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamada 42,25 binden 35,75 bine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ge\u00e7ici bir oynama de\u011fil; i\u015fe al\u0131m ivmesinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden bir e\u011filim. Bu da yaz aylar\u0131na girerken ekonomik faaliyetin daha zay\u0131f olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, en son a\u00e7\u0131klanan resmi istihdam verisiyle de destekleniyor: Nisan ay\u0131 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7, kamu-\u00f6zel toplam istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) 85 bin ile 150 bin olan piyasa beklentisinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca may\u0131s ortas\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,1\u2019e gerileyerek bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck h\u0131z\u0131na indi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Zay\u0131flayan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ve yava\u015flayan enflasyon bir araya gelince, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha temkinli davranmas\u0131 i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7eler g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde Fed\u2019in faiz indirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemlerden t\u00fcretilen olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi ihtimalini %65 g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce yaln\u0131zca %30\u2019du. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle SOFR (ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faizi) ve Fed Funds (bankalar\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizi) vadeli kontratlar\u0131na bakarak pozisyon almay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksleri taraf\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi fiyat\u0131 dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Yava\u015flayan ekonomi (riskli varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in olumsuz) ile daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 ihtimali (riskli varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in destekleyici) aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fme dalgal\u0131 piyasalara yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu nedenle S&P 500 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) ile korunma almay\u0131 veya VIX al\u0131m opsiyonu (VIX: piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endeksi; call: y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanan opsiyon) alarak beklenen fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan yararlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de ADP d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalama 35,75 bine indi: i\u015fe al\u0131m ivmesi so\u011fuyor. Zay\u0131f NFP ve gerileyen \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon, Fed\u2019e faiz indirimi alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor; piyasalar dalgalanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47499"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47499\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}