Societe Generale\u2019in emtia ekibi, Brent petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7en hafta 113 dolar civar\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir tepe yapt\u0131ktan sonra Ocak\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na indi\u011fini belirtti. (Hareketli ortalama, fiyat\u0131n son 50 g\u00fcndeki ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren ve trendi izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan bir g\u00f6stergedir.) Kontrat \u015fimdi 96 dolar civar\u0131ndaki ara deste\u011fi test ediyor; bu seviye May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeydi. (Destek, fiyat\u0131n genelde tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n devreye girebildi\u011fi b\u00f6lgedir.) Bu seviye k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa banka, Mart\u2019tan beri \u00e7izilen y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisi etraf\u0131nda 91\/90 dolar\u0131n, ard\u0131ndan 86 dolar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde izlenecek seviyeler oldu\u011funu aktard\u0131. (Trend \u00e7izgisi, fiyat\u0131n genel y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren; y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisi destek gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilen \u00e7izgidir.)<\/p>\n
Ekip ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na dair birka\u00e7 senaryoyu modelleyerek (modellemek, olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hesaplamak i\u00e7in senaryo \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yapmakt\u0131r) y\u0131l sonu fiyatlar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirdi. Haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda erken bir a\u00e7\u0131lma senaryosunda Brent\u2019in y\u0131l sonuna kadar varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 85 dolara do\u011fru kademeli gerileyece\u011fi; daha ge\u00e7 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerin ise fiyat\u0131 150\u2013160 dolara do\u011fru s\u0131\u00e7ratabilece\u011fi belirtildi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 senaryoda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz y\u0131l sonuna kadar kapal\u0131 kal\u0131rsa Brent\u2019in varil ba\u015f\u0131na 200 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fc yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc fiyat tutunma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kaybederek Ocak\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Fiyat \u015fimdi varil ba\u015f\u0131na 96 dolar civar\u0131nda kritik bir destek seviyesini test ediyor. Bu teknik zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde artan jeopolitik gerilimle birlikte g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadeli neden, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki devam eden aksama. Denizcilik takip verilerine g\u00f6re son deniz gerilimleri bu ay tanker trafi\u011fini %70\u2019ten fazla azaltt\u0131. Bu durum piyasay\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; son EIA raporu (EIA, ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi; petrol stoklar\u0131 gibi verileri yay\u0131mlar) k\u00fcresel ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011funu teyit etti. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) de bu gerilimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor: Nisan\u2019daki 30 ortalamas\u0131ndan 55\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. (OVX, petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku g\u00f6stergesi\u201d benzeri bir endekstir; y\u00fckselmesi belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder.)<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, net bir y\u00f6n trendinden \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek dalgalanma d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret ediyor. Brent 96 dolar deste\u011fini koruyamazsa, 90 dolar civar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilme riski var. Haziran ba\u015f\u0131na kadar m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclen h\u0131zl\u0131 bir diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm, fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru 85 dolara kademeli olarak itebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senARYO, yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma halinde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek \u201crahatlama\u201d hareketinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in satma opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanabilen opsiyon) veya ay\u0131 put spreadi (bear put spread; bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) gibi pozisyonlar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirir. Ancak gerilimin b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski y\u00fcksek ve riskin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir. Piyasa, kesintinin uzamas\u0131 ihtimalini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bo\u011fazdaki k\u0131s\u0131tlar s\u00fcrer veya tamamen kapan\u0131rsa, daha \u00f6nceki b\u00fcy\u00fck arz \u015foklar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen harekete benzer \u015fekilde fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 150\u2013160 dolar band\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanabilen opsiyon) ya da bo\u011fa call spreadi (bull call spread; bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir call satarak maliyeti azaltan strateji) almay\u0131 destekler. Y\u00fcksek \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyat\u0131na g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131 yapar; buna kar\u015f\u0131n bu \u00fcr\u00fcnler, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir arz krizine \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f zarar\u201d ile i\u015flem yapma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brent\u2019te alarm: 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama alt\u0131, 96 dolar destek testte. K\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 91\/90 ve 86 g\u00fcndemde. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz senaryosu kritik: erken a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m 85$, gecikme 150\u2013160$, y\u0131l sonu kapal\u0131 kal\u0131rsa 200$+.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47497","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47497"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47497\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47497"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47497"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47497"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}