Societe Generale\u2019in emtia ekibi, Brent petrol\u00fcn Ocak\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez **50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n** (son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge) alt\u0131na indi\u011fini ve ge\u00e7en hafta **113 dolar** civar\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir tepe yapt\u0131ktan sonra **96 dolar** yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki **destek** seviyesini (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) test etti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bankaya g\u00f6re **96 dolar** seviyesi k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, Mart\u2019tan beri \u00e7izilen **y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisi**ne (art arda daha y\u00fcksek dipleri birle\u015ftiren \u00e7izgi) denk gelen **91\/90 dolar** band\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan **86 dolar** g\u00fcndeme gelebilir; bu da daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine alan a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Ekip, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc **H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n** yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin sonu\u00e7lara ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda erken a\u00e7\u0131lma senaryosunda Brent\u2019in y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k **85 dolara** gerileyebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Daha ge\u00e7 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm ise ge\u00e7ici olarak **150\u2013160 dolar** band\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7ramalar yaratabilir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir senaryoda ge\u00e7i\u015f y\u0131l sonuna kadar kapal\u0131 kal\u0131rsa, Brent\u2019in varil ba\u015f\u0131na **200 dolar\u0131n** \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n tedirginli\u011fi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Brent petrol, Ocak\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti. **96 dolar\/varil** civar\u0131ndaki destek testinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in kritik oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu seviyenin korunamamas\u0131, ek sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n
**96 dolar** deste\u011fi k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, **90\u201391 dolar** civar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilme riski artar. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda erken a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini destekleyebilir ve fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar kademeli bi\u00e7imde **85 dolar** civar\u0131na itebilir. Bu senaryo, mevcut diplomatik sinyallere g\u00f6re en olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gerilimin artmas\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in **a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f riski** g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. **CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX)** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) **52** seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve fiyat\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck **%4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde** hareketinin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu d\u00fczeydeki korku, 2022\u2019deki arz \u015foklar\u0131ndan (arz\u0131n aniden d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle fiyatlar\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131) bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Kesinti riski halen g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k **21 milyon varili** etkiledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, do\u011frudan **a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f** (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazanmak i\u00e7in varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 al\u0131p satma) pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00e7ok riskli. Bu nedenle, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden yararlanan **t\u00fcrev** (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan finansal ara\u00e7) stratejileri daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin Temmuz vadeli **uzun straddle** (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte alma; fiyat sert y\u00fckselirse de d\u00fc\u015ferse de kazan\u00e7 hedefler) t\u00fcr\u00fc opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 ya da ani uzla\u015f\u0131 durumunda sert hareketi yakalayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brent\u2019te kritik k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m: 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama alt\u0131nda, 96 dolar deste\u011fi testte. SocGen\u2019e g\u00f6re 96 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 91\/90 ve 86 g\u00fcndemde. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rsa 85; gecikirse 150-160, kapan\u0131rsa 200+ riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47496","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47496","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47496"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47496\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47496"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47496"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47496"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}