Euro, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; 1,1640 civar\u0131nda ve haftan\u0131n 1,1650 b\u00f6lgesinin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Destek, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) yetkililerinin daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) bir ton kullanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi: Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Isabel Schnabel, bankan\u0131n enflasyondaki s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 art\u0131k \u201cge\u00e7ici\u201d say\u0131p g\u00f6rmezden gelemeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve Haziran\u2019da faiz ad\u0131m\u0131 gerekece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Ba\u015fekonomist Philip Lane ise Nikkei\u2019ye, ek y\u00f6nlendirmeye gerek g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini belirtti ve piyasalar\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi\/likiditenin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) beklentileri konusunda rahat bir duru\u015f sergiledi. Dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi ise piyasalar\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fczakereyle bitmesine dair umutlar\u0131 tartmas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu beklenti, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftaki zirvelerin belirgin alt\u0131nda tuttu ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00fczerindeki k\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de Dallas Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Lorie Logan, bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n \u201cfaiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d da \u201cfaiz indirimi\u201d de olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyerek, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi \u00f6ncesinde faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakt\u0131. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan EUR\/USD 1,1638\u2019deydi; 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck yatay bant hareketinin \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken bant taban\u0131 1,1550-1,1560 b\u00f6lgesinde bulunuyor. 4 saatlik RSI (G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesine i\u015faret ederken MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama: trend ve momentum \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) pozitif kald\u0131. 1,1660 \u00fczeri bir hareket 1,1720 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1790 hedeflerini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Destekler 1,1615 ve 1,1575\u2019te; bu seviyelerin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 1,1505-1,1525 band\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sinyali vermesi, daha temkinli duran ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (Fed) belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131, Euro\u2019nun son d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ana nedeni. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD i\u00e7in daha olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyonun \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay gerilemeyen) kalmas\u0131 da bu duru\u015fu destekliyor. Son veriler, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131larak hesaplanan enflasyon) %2,7 seviyesinde g\u00f6sterdi ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. ABD\u2019de PCE Fiyat Endeksi (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) de %2,7 geldi; bu da Fed\u2019in acele etmeyip beklemesine alan tan\u0131yor. Bu temel veriler, Euro\u2019nun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 pay\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
1,1660 \u201cdiren\u00e7\u201d seviyesinin (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. Haziran sonuna vadeli, 1,1700 civar\u0131nda \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131\u201dna (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) sahip bir s\u00f6zle\u015fme, 1,1720 veya 1,1790\u2019a do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmaya imk\u00e2n verir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kazan\u00e7 ihtimali sa\u011flarken maksimum zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon bedeli) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm i\u00e7in ana risk, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE verisi. Beklentinin belirgin \u00fczerinde bir enflasyon, Euro\u2019daki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilir. Bu riski azaltmak i\u00e7in \u201cbull call spread\u201d (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyet i\u00e7in bir call al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 seviyeden ba\u015fka bir call satarak kurulan, k\u00e2r\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) kullan\u0131labilir; b\u00f6ylece ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyeti ve ba\u015fa ba\u015f noktas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB\u2019den \u015fahin sinyaller Euro\u2019yu ta\u015f\u0131yor: EUR\/USD 1,1640\u2019ta, 1,1660 direnci kritik. \u00dcst\u00fc 1,1720-1,1790; alt\u0131 1,1615-1,1575. Risk: ABD PCE s\u00fcrprizi. Opsiyonla pozisyonlanma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47495\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}