ABD\u2019de MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association: Konut kredisi bankac\u0131lar\u0131 birli\u011fi) verisine g\u00f6re konut kredisi ba\u015fvurular\u0131 22 May\u0131s ile biten haftada %-8,5\u2019e geriledi. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde oran %-2,3\u2019t\u00fc. Bu veri, MBA anketiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen toplam konut kredisi talebinde haftal\u0131k daralman\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Konut kredisi ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n %-8,5\u2019e sert d\u00fc\u015fmesi, konut piyasas\u0131nda belirgin bir bask\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k sabit faizli konut kredisi faizi (vade boyunca faizin de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi kredi t\u00fcr\u00fc) ortalama %7,1 civar\u0131ndayken, bu tablo mevcut bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinde hem yeni al\u0131c\u0131 talebinin hem de refinansman (mevcut krediyi daha uygun ko\u015fulla yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma) talebinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonominin bu kritik alan\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etkisinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair \u00f6nc\u00fc bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu yava\u015flama nedeniyle Fed\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yerine faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) bir s\u00f6yleme y\u00f6nelmesi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Bu da faizlere ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (de\u011feri faiz gibi bir g\u00f6stergeden t\u00fcreyen finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (Treasury note futures: ABD tahvilleri \u00fczerine ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) uzun pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefi) de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa gelecekte faiz indirimi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdik\u00e7e bu s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin fiyat\u0131 genelde y\u00fckselir.<\/p>\n
Konut taraf\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00f6zellikle konut in\u015faat \u015firketleri ve y\u00fcksek konut kredisi portf\u00f6y\u00fcne sahip bankalar\u0131n hisselerini etkiler. Sekt\u00f6rde olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya getiri hedeflemek i\u00e7in konut in\u015faat\u0131 odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 veya korunma arac\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin XHB. Temel beklenti, talep zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a konutla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u015firketlerin k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n ve hisse fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131lanmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, 2006\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi konut piyasas\u0131nda h\u0131zlanan bozulma \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha geni\u015f ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,5 seviyesinde y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131yla birlikte konut verilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle VIX vadeli i\u015flemleri veya opsiyonlar\u0131yla (VIX: piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\/volatilite endeksi; t\u00fcrevleri dalgalanma art\u0131\u015f\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) dalgalanmaya maruziyeti art\u0131rmay\u0131 daha temkinli buluyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de MBA verisiyle konut kredisi ba\u015fvurular\u0131 haftal\u0131k %-8,5\u2019e sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; %7,1 faizle talep ve refinansman zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Fed\u2019de g\u00fcvercinlik, tahvil uzunlar\u0131; XHB put, banka\/konut hisselerinde bask\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47492"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47492\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}