Yen, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc dolara kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. USD\/JPY d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da y\u00fckselerek bir ay\u0131n zirvesi 159,45\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 160,00 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Bu seviye, Japon yetkililerin \u201cyenin kabul edilebilir zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d i\u00e7in \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir e\u015fik. Piyasalar, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n \u201cenerji kaynakl\u0131 bir \u015fokun enflasyonu ikinci tur etkilerle (ilk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fccretler ve di\u011fer fiyatlara yay\u0131lmas\u0131) yeniden yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fi\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki s\u0131k\u0131 (\u015fahin: faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filimi) mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6rmezden geldi. Ueda\u2019n\u0131n s\u00f6zleri, BoJ\u2019un 15 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirse de, bu etki; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131na hassasiyeti ve Japon devlet tahvili getirilerinin (JGB faizi; tahvilin y\u0131ll\u0131k kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dikkat \u015fimdi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Japonya verilerine, \u00f6zellikle Tokyo T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (Tokyo T\u00dcFE; Tokyo\u2019da t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim, \u00fclke enflasyonu i\u00e7in erken g\u00f6sterge) \u00e7evrildi. Bu veriler, Haziran politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri netle\u015ftirebilir. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerjiyi d\u0131\u015flayan enflasyon; daha kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat e\u011filimini g\u00f6sterir) May\u0131s\u2019ta istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmemesi, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ise Nisan\u2019da bir miktar yava\u015flamas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6te yandan dolar, piyasalar\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) duru\u015funu daha s\u0131k\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Son veriler ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na dair endi\u015feleri azaltt\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimaline daha fazla fiyat bi\u00e7meye ba\u015flad\u0131. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE enflasyon verisi (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) bu beklentileri test edecek ve dolar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY paritesi 159,50 civar\u0131nda bir ay\u0131n zirvelerini test ediyor; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in kritik 160,00 seviyesini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu seviyeyi, Japon yetkililerin d\u00f6vize m\u00fcdahale (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasadan yen al\u0131p dolar satma gibi do\u011frudan i\u015flem) edebilece\u011fi muhtemel bir \u201ce\u015fik\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; 2024 Nisan ve May\u0131s aylar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ad\u0131mlara benzer \u015fekilde. Bu nedenle e\u011filim yukar\u0131 olsa da, sert ve ani bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riski \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck bir politika ad\u0131m\u0131 veya m\u00fcdahale ihtimali nedeniyle pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in se\u00e7eneklere bak\u0131yoruz. USD\/JPY\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen dalgalanma) %10\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, 15 Haziran BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki tedirginli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. 158,00\u2019in alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem hakk\u0131 veren fiyat\u0131) JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu; kur d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) alman\u0131n, s\u00fcrpriz bir harekete kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir koruma sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un Haziran ortas\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; ancak piyasa bunun yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirmeye yetip yetmeyece\u011finden emin de\u011fil. Faiz fark\u0131 belirgin: Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %1\u2019e yak\u0131nken ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde; bu fark dolar\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tokyo T\u00dcFE kritik olacak; verinin beklenen %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde gelmesi BoJ\u2019u daha sert bir \u00e7izgiye (daha h\u0131zl\u0131\/\u00e7ok faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) itebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verileri sonras\u0131 piyasalar bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in beklenen Fed faiz indirimlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanacak PCE endeksinin \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,8\u2019de sabit g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. Veri daha y\u00fcksek gelirse, \u201cfaizler daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalacak\u201d beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir ve USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160,00 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek tetikleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: USD\/JPY 159,45 ile 160 e\u015fi\u011fine dayand\u0131; m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fckseldi. Ueda\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin tonu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etki yapt\u0131. G\u00f6zler: Tokyo T\u00dcFE, ABD PCE, faiz fark\u0131; dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47491","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47491"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47491\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}