Hindistan rupisi, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek g\u00fcne ba\u015flad\u0131; USD\/INR paritesi 95,70\u2019e do\u011fru geriledi. Bunun arkas\u0131nda, WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn (ABD tipi ham petrol) %1,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 90,80 dolara inmesi var. Petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerin para birimleri bu t\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerden genelde destek bulur.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik risk g\u00fcndemde kalmaya devam etti. \u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131lar sonras\u0131 ate\u015fkesi ihlal etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa\u201d olarak niteledi. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 (IRGC), misilleme tehdidinde bulundu. Arabulucular \u00fczerinden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirme ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7ma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu hat k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n (d\u00fcnyada t\u00fcketilen enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n) yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII; yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fonlar) Hindistan hisselerinde temkinli kald\u0131. Pazartesi 821,75 crore rupi al\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 2.407,87 crore rupi sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Dolar endeksi (dolar\u0131n ana para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren sepet) per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanacak nisan ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi \u00f6ncesi 99,00 civar\u0131nda dar bantta seyretti. \u00c7ekirdek PCE (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon; daha \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131\u201d fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) i\u00e7in beklenti y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3; martta %3,2 idi. Ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n %0,3 olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama; son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) 95,4387 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; 0-100 aras\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 56 civar\u0131nda. Destek 95,44 ve ard\u0131ndan 95,00; diren\u00e7 96,37 ve 97,00 b\u00f6lgesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131na gerilemesi, Hindistan rupisini destekliyor. Ancak bu hareket, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc FII \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla dengeleniyor. NSDL verilerine g\u00f6re (Hindistan menkul k\u0131ymet saklama kurumu), may\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u015fu ana kadar net \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f 20.000 crore rupiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Bu durum USD\/INR paritesinde 95,70 \u00e7evresinde hassas bir denge yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana belirleyici ba\u015fl\u0131k, ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin m\u00fczakereler. Piyasan\u0131n bu geli\u015fmedeki \u201ciki olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131\u201d riski (sonu\u00e7 ya rahatlama ya da gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131) tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) bir ayl\u0131k USD\/INR opsiyonlar\u0131nda sadece %6,5 seviyesinde; 2024 sonundaki benzer gerilimlerde %8 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Straddle gibi stratejiler (ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu; fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynar) sert bir fiyat hareketinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Dikkat, ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisinde olacak; bu veri Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) en \u00e7ok izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi. Piyasa beklentisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3. Beklentiden y\u00fcksek bir veri, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu da dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak USD\/INR\u2019yi 96,37 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan paritenin 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, dolar lehine e\u011filimin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. 97,00 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015f ihtimali dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde; daha ucuz ama ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket gerekir) tercih edilebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin 96,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 haftal\u0131k opsiyonlar, PCE verisi sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma ya da \u0130ran\u2019dan olumsuz haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 durumunda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol %1,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle rupiyi destekledi; USD\/INR 95,70\u2019e indi. Ancak FII sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bask\u0131 kuruyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi ve Per\u015fembe \u00e7ekirdek PCE (%3,3) Fed beklentilerini belirleyecek. Destek 95,44-95; diren\u00e7 96,37-97.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47490"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47490\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}