AUD\/USD, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 0,7280 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ara zirvenin ard\u0131ndan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131na (son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn fiyat ortalamas\u0131; trend y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u00e7in takip edilir) do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi. Hareket, Nisan ay\u0131 Avustralya T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) beklentiden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesi ve istihdam verilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda geldi. Bu tablo, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Faiz beklentileri gerilerken spot kurda (anl\u0131k piyasa fiyat\u0131) hafif sat\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Teknik seviyelerde ilk destek 0,7070\u2019te. Diren\u00e7 0,7220\u20130,7280 band\u0131nda; 0,7280 ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6nemli e\u015fik olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 0,7070\u2019in alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma, 0,6975\u2019e do\u011fru alan a\u00e7ar; ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k kanal\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre iki s\u0131n\u0131r aras\u0131nda hareket etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm) alt band\u0131 olan 0,6850\/0,6830 takip edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tabloya g\u00f6re Avustralya dolar\u0131ndaki son zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir i\u015faret. AUD\/USD, May\u0131s zirvesi 0,7280 civar\u0131ndan geri geldi ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 test ediyor; bu seviye teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan kritik kabul edilir. Geri \u00e7ekilmenin ana nedeni, RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, Avustralya dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in temkinli duru\u015fu destekliyor. Nisan sonunda a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek T\u00dcFE verisi %3,4 ile piyasa beklentisi olan %3,7\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re enflasyonda yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etti. Ayr\u0131ca Nisan ay\u0131 istihdam raporu 5 bin ki\u015filik beklenmedik bir net istihdam kayb\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da piyasada, Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fcndemden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler; opsiyon gibi) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu durum, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma ihtimaline g\u00f6re pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. 0,7050\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (opsiyonun i\u015flem fiyat\u0131) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131, 0,6975\u2019e hatta kanal deste\u011fi 0,6850 civar\u0131na hareket hedefiyle de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Paritenin 0,7070 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda net bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 halinde bu yakla\u015f\u0131m daha anlaml\u0131 hale gelir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan 0,7280 direnci de yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) toparlan\u0131r veya ABD verileri zay\u0131flarsa, AUD\/USD destek bulup y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ebilir. Bu senaryoda, paran\u0131n mevcut fiyat\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalan sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131ndan (out-of-the-money; \u015fu an k\u00e2rda olmayan) olu\u015fan sat\u0131m spread\u2019i satmak (iki opsiyonla kurulan, risk ve getirisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji) prim (opsiyon fiyat\u0131) toplamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir; 0,7070 deste\u011finin korunaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak RBA\u2019n\u0131n beklemede kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fahin (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmay\u0131 savunan) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler AUD\/USD\u2019de oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Opsiyonlardaki ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (piyasan\u0131n gelecekte bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma; opsiyon fiyat\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilir) bu belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi ve \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k zirveye yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Bu durum opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini cazip k\u0131labilir; ancak iki y\u00f6nde de sert ve ani hareket riskinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD\u2019de dikkat: 0,7280 zirvesi sonras\u0131 parite 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamaya \u00e7ekildi. Zay\u0131f T\u00dcFE ve istihdam, RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini s\u00f6nd\u00fcrd\u00fc. 0,7070 kritik; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,6975-0,6850 g\u00fcndemde. Oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47489"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47489\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}