Brent petrol, ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya dair iyimserli\u011fin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131, ancak erken i\u015flemlerde yeniden geriledi. Bu hafta net bir haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmamas\u0131, takvim beklentilerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi ve fiyatlar\u0131 Cuma kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 dolar alt\u0131nda tuttu. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca, Tasnim\u2019in aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde donmu\u015f 24 milyar dolarl\u0131k varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istemesi var. Bu konu, ba\u015fm\u00fczakereci Galibaf\u2019\u0131n d\u00fcn sona eren Katar ziyaretinde de ele al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio, taslak metnin \u201cifadesi \u00fczerinde\u201d anla\u015fman\u0131n \u201cbirka\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u201d alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201ckesintisiz, \u00fccret al\u0131nmadan\u201d a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131 talebini yineledi. Wall Street Journal, ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en gemilere yard\u0131m etti\u011fini yazd\u0131; ancak ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha sonra refakat uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddias\u0131n\u0131 yalanlad\u0131. Son 24 saatte Brent %3,58 y\u00fckseldi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc %7,15\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yaln\u0131zca bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti. Brent bu sabah %1,57 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98,02 dolara indi; bu seviye, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 103,54 dolarl\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,50 dolar alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimaliyle ilgili haber ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131yla h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Brent \u015fu s\u0131ralar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 96,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; 103 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki son zirvelerden belirgin uzak. Bu tablo, piyasada \u201carz\u201d (piyasaya sunulan petrol miktar\u0131) alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fimlerin bile fiyatlar\u0131 sert etkiledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle uzun vadeli tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar daha riskli; k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flemler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik, Brent \u201copsiyonlar\u0131nda\u201d (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. OVX (petrol fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye aylard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyordu. Olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fma, k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede k\u00fcresel piyasaya g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3 milyon varil \u0130ran petrol\u00fc ekleyebilir. Bu olas\u0131 \u201carz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d ge\u00e7en haftaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ana nedeni olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir yol haritas\u0131 i\u00e7in 2015\u2019teki JCPOA (n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma) \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6neme bak\u0131labilir. O anla\u015fma kesinle\u015fmeden \u00f6nceki alt\u0131 ayda petrol fiyatlar\u0131, \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nece\u011fi beklentisiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 gerilemi\u015fti. Benzer bir tablo yeniden olu\u015fabilir. Bu nedenle m\u00fczakerelerde teyit edilen her ilerleme, ham petrolde \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131n gerileyebilece\u011fi i\u015fareti) olarak okunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalanmas\u0131 ya da bozulmas\u0131 gibi \u201cikili risk\u201d (iki z\u0131t sonu\u00e7tan birinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi) i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak risk y\u00f6netimine odaklanmas\u0131 daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u201cStraddle\/strangle\u201d (fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tahmin etmeden, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131) almak, hangi y\u00f6nde olursa olsun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Anla\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc inanc\u0131 olanlar i\u00e7in \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in daha fazla hareket gerektiren) \u201ccall spread\u201d (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonuyla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) satmak, olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, ABD\u2019nin temel talebi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na dair m\u00fczakerecilerin kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifadeleri yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekiyor. Bo\u011fazda deniz hareketleri veya refakat faaliyeti oldu\u011funa dair haberler, piyasay\u0131 h\u0131zla etkileyebilecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201ckataliz\u00f6r\u201d (fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zla hareket ettiren geli\u015fme) olur. K\u0131sa vadeli fiyat y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu jeopolitik sinyaller, klasik stok verilerinden daha belirleyici durumda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brent\u2019te sert dalga: ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fma iyimserli\u011fi zay\u0131flay\u0131nca kay\u0131plar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 geri al\u0131nd\u0131, sonra yeniden geriledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz mesajlar\u0131 ve 1,3 milyon varil arz ihtimali oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor, OVX 35\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47488"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47488\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}