USD\/JPY, Japon devlet tahvillerine (JGB; Japon Hazine tahvili) talebin artmas\u0131 ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn JGB faizlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Son d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok uzun vadeli (\u00f6r. 30-40 y\u0131l) JGB ihalelerinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 verileri de daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 yerli al\u0131ma i\u015faret etti. Bu da getiri e\u011frisinin (faizlerin vadeye g\u00f6re da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131) uzun taraf\u0131nda daha sa\u011flam bir destek oldu\u011fu alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon riski h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek ve yen zay\u0131fken, piyasalar Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) haziranda faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bekliyor; yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 baz puan (bp; faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim) \u015fimdiden fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) beklenenden daha fazla ve daha h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) sinyali vermesiyle G10 i\u00e7inde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; temmuzda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve neredeyse tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Buna ra\u011fmen hazirandaki BoJ ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yende ani bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme yaratmas\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k; ancak 160 seviyesinde olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale (kurun kontrol\u00fc i\u00e7in piyasaya sat\u0131\u015f\/al\u0131m) riski nedeniyle daha fazla de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019deki mevcut sakinlik ve ham petrol\u00fcn gerilemesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131n vadede bant i\u00e7inde (belirli bir aral\u0131kta) seyir bekliyoruz. USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli kurdan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %7,5\u2019e geriledi; bu, BoJ\u2019un haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ortam, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta oynakl\u0131k satman\u0131n (opsiyon primi toplamak i\u00e7in opsiyon satmak; kur sakin kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan yakla\u015f\u0131m) daha uygun olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de 160 seviyesini, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 m\u00fcdahale tehdidiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201ctavan\u201d (diren\u00e7; kurun zor a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024\u2019te teyit edilen milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k m\u00fcdahaleler, bu seviyelerde h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Bu nedenle 160 ve \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi kur) \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak (mevcut kurun \u00fcst\u00fcnde strike; prim toplama hedefi) daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, BoJ\u2019un haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 bp\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zaten fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, karar\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na yende g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f (kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc) yaratmas\u0131 beklenmiyor. May\u0131s Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (Core CPI; oynak kalemler daha az etkili olsun diye baz\u0131 kalemlerin d\u0131\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin %2,3\u2019te kalmas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tezini destekliyor; ancak \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ad\u0131m\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131lacak kadar \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Bu nedenle ana riskin \u201cg\u00fcvercin s\u00fcrpriz\u201d (beklenenden daha yumu\u015fak duru\u015f; daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck art\u0131\u015f veya erteleme) oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin 10 bp\u2019lik daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck art\u0131\u015f ya da gecikme USD\/JPY\u2019yi yeniden 160 bariyerine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, tan\u0131ml\u0131 banttan ve yukar\u0131daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7ten faydalanan stratejilere odaklan\u0131yoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin USD\/JPY \u201ccall spread\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (iki opsiyonla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli yap\u0131; bir call sat\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 strike\u2019tan bir call almak), 160 strike\u2019ta k\u0131sa (sat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) ve 161 strike\u2019ta uzun (al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f) pozisyonla, zaman de\u011ferinin erimesinden (time decay; vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon priminin azalmas\u0131) ve BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli bir yol sunar. Bu pozisyon, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zaten fiyatlanm\u0131\u015fken kurun yatay kalmas\u0131 veya hafif gerilemesi durumunda avantaj sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY sakin: JGB talebi ve petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc faizleri indirirken 160 seviyesi m\u00fcdahale tehdidiyle sert tavan. BoJ haziranda +19 bp fiyatland\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilitede bant, call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47487"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47487\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}