Hindistan rupisi ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanarak a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; USD\/INR paritesi, WTI\u2019\u0131n (ABD tipi ham petrol) %1,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 90,80 dolara gerilemesiyle 95,70\u2019e do\u011fru indi. Petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, net petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerin para birimlerini destekledi. Jeopolitik risk g\u00fcndemde kalmaya devam etti: \u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ate\u015fkesi ihlal etti\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa\u201d olarak niteledi; Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 ise misilleme tehdidinde bulundu. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n sona erdirilmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler arabulucular \u00fczerinden s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu rota k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII: \u00fclkeye d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen b\u00fcy\u00fck fonlar) Hint hisselerinde temkinli kald\u0131. Pazartesi 821,75 crore rupi (crore: 10 milyon) al\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 2.407,87 crore rupi sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131lar. Dolar endeksi, per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanacak nisan ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE: t\u00fcketim \u00fczerinden hesaplanan enflasyon) fiyat endeksi \u00f6ncesinde 99,00 civar\u0131nda dar bantta seyretti. \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7 enflasyon) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 (mart: %3,2), ayl\u0131k %0,3 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) \u00fczerindeki 95,4387 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 56 civar\u0131nda. Destek 95,44 ve ard\u0131ndan 95,00; diren\u00e7 96,37 ve 97,00 civar\u0131nda izleniyor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131na gerilemesiyle Hindistan rupisi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Ancak bu hareket, y\u00fcksek FII \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla dengeleniyor. NSDL verilerine g\u00f6re (NSDL: Hint menkul k\u0131ymet saklama kurulu\u015fu) may\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u015fimdiye kadar net \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f 20.000 crore rupinin \u00fczerinde. Bu durum USD\/INR i\u00e7in k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir denge yarat\u0131yor; parite 95,70 civar\u0131nda tutunuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana belirleyici, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 konusunda ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri olacak. Piyasa, bu geli\u015fmenin \u201cya olacak ya olmayacak\u201d t\u00fcr\u00fc sert fiyat etkisini tam fiyatlam\u0131yor. Bir ayl\u0131k USD\/INR opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) yaln\u0131zca %6,5 seviyesinde; 2024 sonundaki benzer gerilimlerde %8 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Opsiyon almak, \u00f6zellikle straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu; fiyat hangi y\u00f6ne sert giderse gitsin fayda hedefler) gibi yap\u0131larla, anla\u015fman\u0131n sonucundan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisi de yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; bu g\u00f6sterge, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) enflasyonu takip ederken daha \u00e7ok \u00f6nem verdi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctt\u00fcr. Piyasa beklentisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3. Beklentiden y\u00fcksek bir veri, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu (hawkish: faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu da dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte de\u011ferini art\u0131rabilir ve USD\/INR paritesini 96,37 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan paritenin 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, dolar lehine e\u011filimin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. 97,00 civar\u0131ndaki tarihi zirveye do\u011fru hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money call: bug\u00fcnk\u00fc fiyattan daha yukar\u0131dan alma hakk\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 96,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 haftal\u0131k opsiyonlar, PCE verisi sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma ya da \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 olumsuz haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol %1,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle rupiyi destekledi; USD\/INR 95,70\u2019e geriledi. Ancak FII sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz-ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve per\u015fembe \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019de; teknik diren\u00e7 96,37-97,00.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47486"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47486\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}