Brent petrol\u00fc, ABD\u2013\u0130ran olas\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair iyimserli\u011fin azalmas\u0131yla Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc sert sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131ktan sonra, erken i\u015flemlerde yeniden geriledi. Bu hafta net bir haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmamas\u0131 nedeniyle, anla\u015fman\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler de\u011fi\u015fti ve fiyatlar Cuma kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 dolar alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, Tasnim \u00fczerinden aktar\u0131lan talebine g\u00f6re, anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde dondurulmu\u015f 24 milyar dolarl\u0131k varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istemesi yer ald\u0131. Konu, ba\u015fm\u00fczakereci Galibaf\u2019\u0131n d\u00fcn sona eren Katar ziyaretinde de ele al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio, taslak metnin \u201cifadeleri \u00fczerinde\u201d anla\u015fmak i\u00e7in \u201cbirka\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u201d gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201ckesintisiz, \u00fccret al\u0131nmadan\u201d a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131 talebini yineledi. Wall Street Journal, ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en gemilere yard\u0131m etti\u011fini yazd\u0131; ancak ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) daha sonra refakat uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yalanlad\u0131. Son 24 saatte Brent y\u00fczde 3,58 y\u00fckseldi; buna ra\u011fmen Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fczde 7,15\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn sadece bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti. Brent bu sabah y\u00fczde 1,57 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98,02 dolara geriledi; bu seviye Cuma kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 103,54 dolar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,50 dolar alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimaline ili\u015fkin man\u015fetlerle bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareket ediyor. Brent \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 96,50 dolarda; 103 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki son zirvelerden belirgin \u015fekilde uzak. Bu tablo, piyasan\u0131n arz (piyasaya sunulan petrol miktar\u0131) alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fime ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortam, uzun vadeli \u201ctek y\u00f6ne\u201d bahisleri (fiyat sadece y\u00fckselecek ya da d\u00fc\u015fecek varsay\u0131m\u0131) daha riskli hale getirirken, k\u0131sa vadeli stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik, Brent opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131na dair bekledi\u011fi d\u00fczey) y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Brent oynakl\u0131k endeksi OVX 35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviyeler aylard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fma, k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede k\u00fcresel piyasaya g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3 milyon varil \u0130ran petrol\u00fc ekleyebilir. Bu \u201carz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d ihtimali, ge\u00e7en haftaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin temel nedeni olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir yol haritas\u0131 i\u00e7in 2015\u2019teki JCPOA (\u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131) \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6neme bakmak faydal\u0131 olabilir. O anla\u015fma kesinle\u015fmeden \u00f6nceki alt\u0131 ayda petrol fiyatlar\u0131, \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nece\u011fi beklentisiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20 gerilemi\u015fti. Benzer bir modelin \u015fimdi de olu\u015fmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu nedenle, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f her ilerleme ham petrol i\u00e7in \u201cay\u0131 sinyali\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc lehine i\u015faret) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalanmas\u0131 ya da tamamen \u00e7\u00f6kmesi gibi iki olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7 aras\u0131ndaki keskin riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in opsiyonlara odaklanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Straddle ya da strangle almak (opsiyon stratejileri: fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tahmin etmeden, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekette kazan\u00e7 hedeflemek i\u00e7in al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanmak), y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa do\u011frudan pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar; fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011fini bilmeden iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Anla\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131nda gelece\u011fine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc inanc\u0131 olanlar i\u00e7in \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan uzak) al\u0131m opsiyonu spreadi satmak (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 birlikte kullanarak getiriyi ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak), fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalan\u0131rken riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutman\u0131n bir yoludur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brent\u2019te sert dalga: ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair umutlar zay\u0131flay\u0131nca petrol yeniden geriledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz mesajlar\u0131 izlenirken oynakl\u0131k OVX 35\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131; anla\u015fma 1,3 milyon varil arz ekleyebilir. Opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47484"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47484\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}