USD\/JPY, Japon Devlet Tahvillerine (JGB; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131) talebin artmas\u0131 ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn JGB faizlerini (tahvil getirisi) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti. Son d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok uzun vadeli JGB ihalelerinde (uzun vadeli tahvil sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) sonu\u00e7lar daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi. \u0130\u015flem ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 verileri de daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 yerli al\u0131ma i\u015faret ederek getiri e\u011frisinin (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki faizlerin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131) uzun taraf\u0131nda daha sa\u011flam bir destek oldu\u011fu alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon riskleri y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rken yen zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in piyasalar Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) haziranda faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bekliyor; yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 baz puan (bps; faizin y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik birimi) \u015fimdiden fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. G10 (geli\u015fmi\u015f 10 \u00fclkenin para birimleri) i\u00e7inde Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) daha \u00f6nce beklenenden daha fazla ve daha h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131) sinyali verdi. Bu da temmuzda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok olas\u0131 ve neredeyse tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f hale getirdi. Buna ra\u011fmen, haziranda olas\u0131 bir BoJ ad\u0131m\u0131 yende sert bir de\u011ferlenmeyi tetikleme ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Ancak 160 seviyesi civar\u0131nda, d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (kamu kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasada al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131) tehdidi nedeniyle daha fazla de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de mevcut istikrar ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131n vadede kurun belirli bir bantta (yukar\u0131-a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 aral\u0131k) hareket etmesini bekliyoruz. USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda (kur \u00fczerinden al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) %7,5\u2019e gerileyerek BoJ\u2019un haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki sakinli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201dn\u0131 (volatility selling; dalgalanma artmayacak beklentisiyle opsiyon primi toplama) daha uygun bir yakla\u015f\u0131m haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de 160 seviyesini, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MoF) inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 m\u00fcdahale tehdidiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201ctavan\/diren\u00e7\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024\u2019te do\u011frulanan milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k m\u00fcdahaleler, bu seviyelerde h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da 160 ve \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (OTM; \u015fu anki kura g\u00f6re de\u011fersiz kalan) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasada BoJ\u2019un haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, karar\u0131n kendisinin yende b\u00fcy\u00fck bir h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011ferlenme yaratmas\u0131 beklenmiyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131 Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (Core CPI; enerji ve taze g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin %2,3\u2019te kalmas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini destekliyor; ancak \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ad\u0131m\u0131 i\u015faret edecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil. Bu nedenle ana riskin \u201cg\u00fcvercin s\u00fcrpriz\u201d (dovish; beklenenden daha yumu\u015fak duru\u015f) oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz: \u00f6rne\u011fin daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck 10 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ya da erteleme. Bu senaryoda USD\/JPY yeniden 160 bariyerine y\u00f6nelebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, belirgin bant hareketinden ve yukar\u0131daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7ten faydalanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin USD\/JPY \u201ccall spread\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (ayn\u0131 vadede bir call sat\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan ba\u015fka bir call alarak riski s\u0131n\u0131rlama), 160 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda k\u0131sa (sat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) ve 161 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda uzun (al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f) pozisyonla uygulanabilir. Bu yap\u0131, zaman de\u011ferinin erimesinden (time decay; vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon priminin azalmas\u0131) ve BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131ndan kontroll\u00fc riskle yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler. Kur yatay kal\u0131r veya zaten fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 hafif gerilerse bu pozisyon avantaj sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY\u2019de g\u00f6zler 160\u2019ta: JGB talebi ve petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle yatay seyir s\u00fcr\u00fcyor, 1 ayl\u0131k oynakl\u0131k %7,5\u2019e indi. BoJ\u2019da 19 bp art\u0131\u015f fiyatland\u0131; m\u00fcdahale tehdidi tavan, opsiyonda \u201cvol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47483"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47483\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}