USD\/JPY, **Japon devlet tahvillerine (JGB; Japonya Hazine tahvili)** talebin artmas\u0131 ve **ham petrol** fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn JGB **getirilerini (tahvil faizi)** a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle hemen hemen de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Son d\u00f6nemde yap\u0131lan **\u00e7ok uzun vadeli (super-long; \u00f6rn. 20-30-40 y\u0131l)** JGB ihalelerinde sonu\u00e7lar daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi; **ak\u0131m verileri (flow data; hangi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015flemsel veriler)** de yurt i\u00e7i al\u0131mlar\u0131n yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da getiri e\u011frisinin uzun ucunda (long end; uzun vadeler) daha sa\u011flam bir talep taban\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon riski y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rken yen zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in piyasalar, **Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ)** haziranda faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bekliyor; yakla\u015f\u0131k **19 baz puan (bps; y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, 0,01)** \u015fimdiden fiyatland\u0131. **G10 (G10; en \u00e7ok i\u015flem g\u00f6ren 10 geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke para birimi grubu)** i\u00e7inde **Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131**, **Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ)** daha \u00f6nce beklenenden fazla ve daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; temmuzda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u00e7ok olas\u0131 ve neredeyse tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Yine de haziranda olas\u0131 bir BoJ ad\u0131m\u0131, yende ani bir toparlanma yaratmaktan ziyade, **m\u00fcdahale (intervention; kurdaki hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131)** tehdidi nedeniyle 160 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde daha fazla de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019deki mevcut sakin seyir ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131n vadede **dar bantta (range-bound; belirli bir aral\u0131kta)** i\u015flem g\u00f6rme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. USD\/JPY **opsiyonlar\u0131nda (option; belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme)** 1 ayl\u0131k **ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma)** %7,5\u2019e geriledi; bu, BoJ\u2019un haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi sakinli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada **oynakl\u0131k satmay\u0131 (selling volatility; dalgalanman\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle opsiyon primi toplamak)** makul bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de **160 seviyesini** g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; buray\u0131, **Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n** inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 m\u00fcdahale tehdidi destekliyor. Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024\u2019te do\u011frulanan **milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k m\u00fcdahaleler**, bu seviyelerde kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, **paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money; kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan daha elveri\u015fsiz oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u015fu an k\u00e2rs\u0131z)** ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 160 ve \u00fczeri olan **al\u0131m (call; y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazand\u0131ran)** opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, haziran BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k **19 baz puan** faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, karar\u0131n kendisinin yende g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli yaratmas\u0131 beklenmeyebilir. May\u0131s **Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (Core CPI; oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu)** verisinin %2,3\u2019te kalmas\u0131, art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini destekliyor; ancak \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ad\u0131m bekletecek kadar s\u00fcrpriz de\u011fil. Bu y\u00fczden temel riskin, **g\u00fcvercin s\u00fcrpriz (dovish; daha yumu\u015fak para politikas\u0131)** oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz: \u00f6rne\u011fin daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir **10 baz puan** art\u0131\u015f veya erteleme; bu da USD\/JPY\u2019yi yeniden 160 bariyerine itebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, belirli aral\u0131ktan ve yukar\u0131daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7ten faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin **USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) spread\u2019i satmak**\u2014**160 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda sat\u0131m (short; primi toplars\u0131n\u0131z ama risk \u00fcstlenirsiniz)** ve **161 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m (long; riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon)**\u2014**tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli (defined-risk; maksimum zarar \u00f6nceden belli)** bir y\u00f6ntemle **zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan (time decay; vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon priminin erimesi)** ve BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimalinden yararlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu pozisyon, kurun yatay kalmas\u0131 veya tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmesi durumunda fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY sakin: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc JGB talebi ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol getirileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken 160 direnci korunuyor. BoJ\u2019un haziranda 19 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatland\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131kta 160+ OTM call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47482"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47482\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}