Hindistan rupisi, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. USD\/INR kuru 95,70\u2019e do\u011fru gerilerken, WTI ham petrol %1,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 90,80 dolara indi. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, petrol ithal eden ekonomilerin para birimlerini destekledi. Jeopolitik riskler g\u00fcndemde kalmaya devam etti. \u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131lar sonras\u0131 ilan edilen ate\u015fkesi ihlal etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) ise sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa\u201d (kendini savunma) olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC) misilleme tehdidinde bulundu. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirme ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7ma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri arabulucular \u00fczerinden s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu g\u00fczerg\u00e2h k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII: \u00fclkeye d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan b\u00fcy\u00fck fonlarla giren kurumlar) Hindistan hisselerinde temkinli kald\u0131. Pazartesi 821,75 crore rupi (yakla\u015f\u0131k 8,2 milyar rupi) al\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 2.407,87 crore rupi (yakla\u015f\u0131k 24,1 milyar rupi) sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Dolar endeksi 99,00 civar\u0131nda dar bantta seyretti. Piyasalar per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanacak nisan ay\u0131 ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni izliyor. PCE, ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketim sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesidir. \u201c\u00c7ekirdek PCE\u201d ise g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 tutulmu\u015f PCE\u2019dir; bu sayede daha istikrarl\u0131 enflasyon e\u011filimi izlenir. \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 (martta %3,2) ve ayl\u0131k %0,3 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama: son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) 95,4387 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 56 civar\u0131nda. Destek 95,44 ard\u0131ndan 95,00; diren\u00e7 96,37 ve 97,00 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131na gelmesi Hindistan rupisini destekliyor. Ancak bu hareket, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc FII \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla dengeleniyor. NSDL (Hindistan Menkul K\u0131ymetler Saklama Kurulu\u015fu; yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 raporlar), may\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u015fu ana kadar 20.000 crore rupinin \u00fczerinde net \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f bildiriyor. Bu tablo USD\/INR\u2019de 95,70 \u00e7evresinde hassas bir denge yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana ba\u015fl\u0131k, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ile ilgili m\u00fczakereler. Piyasan\u0131n bu ba\u015fl\u0131ktaki \u201ciki ihtimalli\u201d (olur\/olmaz) riski tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen dalgalanma) bir ayl\u0131k USD\/INR opsiyonlar\u0131nda %6,5 seviyesinde; benzer gerilimlerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 2024 sonundaki %8\u2019in alt\u0131nda. Opsiyon almak, \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda bir al\u0131m ve bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte alarak yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma stratejisi), sonu\u00e7 ne olursa olsun sert fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisi de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) en \u00e7ok \u00f6nem verdi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinden biridir. Piyasa beklentisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3. Beklentiden y\u00fcksek bir veri, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filiminde) duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu da dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na ve USD\/INR\u2019nin 96,37 direncine y\u00f6nelmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalarak dolar lehine e\u011filimin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. 97,00 seviyesine do\u011fru potansiyel hareket dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan; bu y\u00fczden daha ucuz olan) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ilgi \u00e7ekebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin 96,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 haftal\u0131k opsiyonlar, PCE verisi sonras\u0131 ya da \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 olumsuz haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupi hafif g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken USD\/INR 95,70\u2019e indi; petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destek verdi. Ancak FII \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve \u0130ran-H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski tabloyu zorluyor. G\u00f6zler ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisinde. Teknikte 95,44 destek, 96,37 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47481\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}