AUD\/USD, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 0,7280 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ara zirvenin ard\u0131ndan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131na (son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge) do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi. Bu hareket, beklentiden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelen Nisan Avustralya T\u00dcFE (enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7en t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) ve zay\u0131f istihdam verileri sonras\u0131nda geldi. Bu veriler, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Faiz beklentileri gerilerken spot kurda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f i\u015ftah\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Teknik seviyelerde ilk destek 0,7070\u2019te. Diren\u00e7 0,7220\u20130,7280 band\u0131nda; 0,7280 seviyesi k\u0131sa vadede a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken \u00f6nemli e\u015fik olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 0,7070\u2019in alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, 0,6975\u2019e ve ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k kanal\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n belirli bir bant i\u00e7inde hareket etti\u011fi yap\u0131) alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 olan 0,6850\/0,6830 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tabloda Avustralya dolar\u0131ndaki son zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir i\u015faret. AUD\/USD, May\u0131s zirvesi olan 0,7280\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyelerden geri \u00e7ekildi ve \u015fimdi 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 test ediyor. Bu geri \u00e7ekilmenin ana nedeni, RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc konusunda daha temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Nisan sonunda a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek T\u00dcFE verisi %3,4 ile piyasa beklentisi olan %3,7\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etti. Ayr\u0131ca Nisan istihdam raporu 5 bin ki\u015filik s\u00fcrpriz net istihdam kayb\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, piyasalar\u0131n Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapma ihtimalini neredeyse tamamen fiyatlamaktan \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olan enstr\u00fcmanlar; \u00f6rn. opsiyon) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu durum, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma ihtimaline pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. 0,7050\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi sabit fiyat) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir; hedef 0,6975 veya kanal deste\u011fi olan 0,6850 civar\u0131 olabilir. Paritenin 0,7070 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda net bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 halinde bu strateji daha anlaml\u0131 hale gelir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan 0,7280 direnci de izlenmeli. K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 toparlan\u0131r veya ABD verileri zay\u0131flarsa AUD\/USD destek bulup y\u00fckselebilir. Bu senaryoda, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re hemen k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen) put spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonu birlikte kullanarak risk\/geliri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) prim (opsiyonun bedeli) toplamak i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir; burada varsay\u0131m 0,7070 deste\u011finin korunmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak RBA\u2019n\u0131n beklemede kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131\/s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde AUD\/USD\u2019de oynakl\u0131k artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) bu belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi ve \u015fu anda \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yak\u0131n. Bu durum opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini daha cazip k\u0131labilir; ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda iki y\u00f6nde de sert ve ani hareket riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD\u2019de dikkat: May\u0131s\u2019taki 0,7280 ara zirvesi sonras\u0131 parite 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamaya \u00e7ekildi. Zay\u0131f T\u00dcFE\/istihdam RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Destek 0,7070; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,6975-0,6850 g\u00fcndemde. Oynakl\u0131k artt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47480","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47480"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47480\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47480"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47480"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47480"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}