Brent petrol, olas\u0131 bir ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair iyimserli\u011fin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc sert sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131; ancak erken i\u015flemlerde yeniden geriledi. Bu hafta net bir haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmay\u0131nca zamanlamaya dair beklentiler de\u011fi\u015fti ve fiyatlar cuma kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 dolar alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, Tasnim\u2019e g\u00f6re, anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde dondurulmu\u015f 24 milyar dolarl\u0131k varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istemesi vard\u0131. Konu, ba\u015fm\u00fczakereci Galibaf\u2019\u0131n d\u00fcn sona eren Katar ziyareti s\u0131ras\u0131nda da g\u00fcndeme geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio, taslak metnin \u201cdilinde\u201d uzla\u015fman\u0131n \u201cbirka\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u201d alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cengellenmeden, \u00fccret al\u0131nmadan\u201d a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131 talebini yineledi. Wall Street Journal, ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en gemilere yard\u0131m etti\u011fini yazd\u0131; ancak ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) daha sonra refakat uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yalanlad\u0131. Son 24 saatte Brent %3,58 y\u00fckseldi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc %7,15\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yaln\u0131zca bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti. Bu sabah varil ba\u015f\u0131na %1,57 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 98,02 dolara geriledi; bu seviye, cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 103,54 dolarl\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,50 dolar alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair man\u015fetlerle h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Brent \u015fu s\u0131ralar varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 96,50 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; 103 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki son zirvelerden belirgin \u015fekilde uzak. Bu da piyasan\u0131n, arz\u0131n de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131na ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. B\u00f6yle bir ortamda uzun vadeli tek y\u00f6ne bahis almak daha riskli; k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flemler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik, Brent opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cz\u0131mni volatiliteyi\u201d (piyasan\u0131n, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) y\u00fckseltti; OVX (petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksi) 35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bir anla\u015fma, k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde k\u00fcresel piyasaya g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3 milyon varil \u0130ran petrol\u00fc getirebilir. Bu olas\u0131 arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ge\u00e7en haftaki sert fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinin temel nedeni.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir yol haritas\u0131 i\u00e7in 2015\u2019teki JCPOA (\u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131) \u00f6ncesine bak\u0131labilir. O anla\u015fma tamamlanmadan \u00f6nceki alt\u0131 ayda petrol fiyatlar\u0131, \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nece\u011fi beklentisiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 gerilemi\u015fti. Benzer bir tablo \u015fimdi de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; bu nedenle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde teyitli ilerleme, ham petrol a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u201cay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisi) bir sinyal olarak okunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, bir anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalanmas\u0131 ya da \u00e7\u00f6kmesi gibi \u201cya olur ya olmaz\u201d (ikili) riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. \u201cStraddle\u201d ve \u201cstrangle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanarak, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejiler) y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa do\u011frudan pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Anla\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc inanc\u0131 olanlar i\u00e7in \u201cout-of-the-money call spread\u201d satmak (fiyat\u0131n mevcut seviyenin \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 belirli aral\u0131kta satarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanma ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlama) olas\u0131 fiyat gerilemesinden yararlanman\u0131n bir yoludur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brent\u2019te ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 iyimserli\u011fi s\u00f6n\u00fcnce sert sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 geri al\u0131nd\u0131, sonra yeniden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve 24 milyar dolar pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 izleniyor; OVX 35+, opsiyonlarda straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47479"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47479\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}