USD\/JPY, Japon Devlet Tahvillerine (JGB \u2013 Japonya\u2019n\u0131n devlet bor\u00e7lanma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131) talebin artmas\u0131 ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn JGB getirilerini (tahvil faizi) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle yatay seyretti. Son d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok uzun vadeli JGB ihalelerinde daha iyi g\u00f6stergeler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 verileri de daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yerli al\u0131ma i\u015faret etti. Bu tablo, getiri e\u011frisinin (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki tahvil faizlerinin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc) uzun taraf\u0131nda daha sa\u011flam bir destek alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon riskleri h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek ve yen zay\u0131f kal\u0131rken, piyasalar Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) haziranda faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fcndemine ald\u0131; yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 baz puan (1 baz puan = %0,01) art\u0131\u015f \u015fimdiden fiyatlara yans\u0131d\u0131. G10 i\u00e7inde (geli\u015fmi\u015f 10 \u00fclkenin para birimleri grubu) Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) daha \u00f6nce beklenenden fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) ve daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir takvim sinyali verdi. B\u00f6ylece temmuzda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u00e7ok olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve neredeyse tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Buna ra\u011fmen, haziranda BoJ ad\u0131m\u0131 yende ani bir toparlanma yaratma ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; ancak 160 seviyesi civar\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale tehdidi (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kamu d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\/al\u0131m\u0131) nedeniyle daha fazla de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 frenlemeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019deki mevcut istikrar ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131n vadede band i\u00e7inde (belirli bir fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda) seyir bekliyoruz. USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli tarihe kadar belirli kurdan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) %7,5\u2019e geriledi; bu, BoJ\u2019un haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki sakinli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ortam, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada oynakl\u0131k satmay\u0131 (dalgalanman\u0131n artmayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla opsiyon primi toplama) daha uygun bir strateji haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de 160 seviyesini, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 m\u00fcdahale tehdidiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan (diren\u00e7) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024\u2019te do\u011frulanan milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k m\u00fcdahaleler, bu seviyelerde kamunun kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, 160 ve \u00fczeri kullan\u0131ml\u0131 (strike \u2013 opsiyonun i\u015flem fiyat\u0131) zararda al\u0131m (out-of-the-money call; mevcut kurun \u00fczerinde al\u0131m hakk\u0131) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa BoJ\u2019un haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, karar\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na yende g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ba\u015flatmas\u0131 olas\u0131 de\u011fil. May\u0131s Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (CPI \u2013 t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; \u00e7ekirdek, oynak kalemler gibi baz\u0131 kalemler hari\u00e7) verisinin %2,3\u2019te kalmas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini destekliyor; ancak daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ad\u0131m\u0131 i\u015faret edecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil. Bu nedenle ana riskin g\u00fcvercin s\u00fcrpriz (beklenenden \u201cdaha gev\u015fek\u201d duru\u015f) oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz: \u00f6rne\u011fin daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck 10 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ya da erteleme; bu da USD\/JPY\u2019yi yeniden 160 direncine itebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, belirgin bant hareketinden ve yukar\u0131daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7ten yararlanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin USD\/JPY call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131; 160 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon (sat\u0131\u015f) ve 161 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda uzun pozisyon (koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131\u015f) ile, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle zaman de\u011ferinden (vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon priminin erimesi) faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler. Bu pozisyon, kurun sabit kalmas\u0131 veya faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zaten fiyatlanmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilemesi halinde avantaj sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY, artan JGB talebi ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol\u00fcn getirileri bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla yatay. BoJ haziran art\u0131\u015f\u0131 19 bp fiyatl\u0131; 160\u2019ta m\u00fcdahale tavan\u0131. \u0130mplied volatilite 7,5%: bantta opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47478","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47478"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47478\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47478"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47478"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}