USD\/JPY, Japon Devlet Tahvillerine (JGB; Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin bor\u00e7lanma senedi) talebinin artmas\u0131 ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn JGB faizlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle neredeyse de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Son d\u00f6nemdeki \u00e7ok uzun vadeli (\u00f6r. 20-30-40 y\u0131l gibi) JGB ihalelerinde sonu\u00e7lar daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi; para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 verileri de daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yerli al\u0131ma i\u015faret etti. Bu durum, faiz e\u011frisinin uzun ucunda (uzun vadeli tahvillerde) al\u0131m deste\u011finin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi izlenimini peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) riskleri h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek ve yen zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in piyasalar, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) haziranda faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bekliyor; yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 baz puan (bp; faizin y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik k\u0131sm\u0131) \u015fimdiden fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. G10 i\u00e7inde (geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin para birimleri grubu) Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ), \u00f6nceki beklentilere k\u0131yasla daha fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir takvim sinyali verdi. Bu da temmuzda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok olas\u0131 ve neredeyse tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f h\u00e2le getirdi. Buna ra\u011fmen, haziranda olas\u0131 bir BoJ ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yende ani ve sert bir de\u011fer kazanc\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 daha az olas\u0131; ancak 160 seviyesi civar\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale (kur \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) tehdidi varken, daha fazla de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019deki mevcut sakinlik ve d\u00fc\u015fen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde fiyat\u0131n bir bant i\u00e7inde gidip gelmesini bekliyoruz. USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %7,5\u2019e gerileyerek BoJ\u2019un haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki bu sakinli\u011fi yans\u0131tt\u0131. Bu ortam, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in \u201coynakl\u0131k satmay\u0131\u201d (opsiyon premiumu toplamak amac\u0131yla opsiyon satmak) makul bir strateji h\u00e2line getirebilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de 160 seviyesini, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 m\u00fcdahale tehdidiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan (diren\u00e7) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024\u2019te do\u011frulanan milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k m\u00fcdahaleler, devletin bu seviyelerdeki kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun ge\u00e7erli olaca\u011f\u0131 seviye) 160 ve \u00fczeri olan ve \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money; mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131da oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in hemen kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamayan) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call; fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) satmak cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, BoJ\u2019un haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, toplant\u0131n\u0131n kendisinin yende b\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yaratmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k. May\u0131s ay\u0131 Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (Core CPI; enerji gibi oynak kalemlerin etkisi azalt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin %2,3\u2019te kalmas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini destekliyor, ancak \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ad\u0131ma i\u015faret edecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil. Bu nedenle ana riskin \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (dovish; daha yumu\u015fak, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az istekli) bir s\u00fcrpriz oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz: \u00f6rne\u011fin 10 baz puanl\u0131k daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f ya da erteleme. B\u00f6yle bir senaryo USD\/JPY\u2019yi yeniden 160 direncine yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu unsurlar \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, belirgin bant hareketinden ve yukar\u0131daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7ten faydalanan stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin USD\/JPY \u201ccall spread\u201d satmak (biri sat\u0131lan, di\u011feri al\u0131nan iki al\u0131m opsiyonuyla kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli yap\u0131): 160 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call sat\u0131p 161 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zarar (defined-risk; maksimum zarar \u00f6nceden belli) ile zaman de\u011ferinden (time decay; vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon de\u011ferinin erimesi) yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler ve BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na oynar. Bu pozisyon, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zaten fiyatlara girmi\u015f olmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 paritenin yatay kalmas\u0131 veya hafif gerilemesi h\u00e2linde avantaj sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc JGB talebi ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrolle sakin; 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k %7,5. BoJ\u2019un haziranda 19 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatland\u0131, 160\u2019ta m\u00fcdahale direnci; 160+ OTM call\/call-spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47477"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47477\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}