WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol) Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88,90 dolara geriledi. B\u00f6ylece \u00f6nceki seansta g\u00f6r\u00fclen %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeki kazan\u00e7lar geri verildi. Piyasalar, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131nda ilerleme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tartarken iyimserlik zay\u0131flad\u0131. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyine \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa\u201d (kendini savunma) gerek\u00e7esiyle d\u00fczenledi\u011fi hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131, \u201chava sahas\u0131 ihlali\u201d iddias\u0131yla bir ABD F-35 sava\u015f u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve birka\u00e7 \u0130HA\u2019y\u0131 (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fczgan eyaletinde Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerde yap\u0131lan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, yedi haftal\u0131k k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkesin \u201ca\u011f\u0131r ihlali\u201d olarak niteledi. Bu durum, Nisan\u2019daki ate\u015fkes sonras\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (petrol sevkiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik dar ge\u00e7it) yeniden a\u00e7may\u0131 hedefleyen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin soru i\u015faretlerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Suudi Arabistan, Katar ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019nin, b\u00f6lgede olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanman\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 tetikleyebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesiyle Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019tan diplomasiyi \u00f6ncelemesini istedi\u011fi bildirildi. ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio, nihai anla\u015fman\u0131n birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn daha s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz ba\u015fl\u0131klar aras\u0131nda Tahran\u2019\u0131n dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan deniz ge\u00e7i\u015finin k\u0131s\u0131tlanmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00fcvence vermeye yana\u015fmamas\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fcnde belirgin bir oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelen \u00e7eli\u015fkili haberlerle fiyatlar h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Bug\u00fcn, 27 May\u0131s\u2019ta 88,90 dolar civar\u0131na gerileme, piyasan\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 sert hareketlere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasadaki tedirginlik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir d\u00fczeyde: CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX), 35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. OVX, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren bir endekstir; 35 \u00fczeri seviyeler, piyasada b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret eder. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte bu kadar y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k, bir hafta i\u00e7inde %5 veya daha fazla hareketleri s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasa, iki olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor: Bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 gelirse sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma yeniden alevlenirse h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n stratejik \u00f6nemi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Yakla\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcnl\u00fck 21 milyon varil, yani k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin %21\u2019i bu dar ge\u00e7itten ge\u00e7iyor. Bo\u011faz\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 ya da askeri bir ad\u0131m, b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ani bir arz \u015foku (piyasaya gelen petrol miktar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 azalma) anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu, takip edilmesi gereken ana risk.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilim, arz tamponlar\u0131n\u0131n (beklenmedik kesintileri kar\u015f\u0131layacak fazladan stok\/kapasite) zaten zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6neme denk geliyor. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) son verilerine g\u00f6re ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131, May\u0131s sonu i\u00e7in be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 alt\u0131nda seyrediyor. Fiziki piyasan\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 olmas\u0131, herhangi bir kesintinin fiyatlara daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yans\u0131mas\u0131 demek.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. 2020 ba\u015f\u0131nda benzer gerilimler, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda bir g\u00fcnde %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu, \u201cgap riski\u201dni (piyasa kapal\u0131yken veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likiditede fiyat\u0131n bir anda bo\u015fluk b\u0131rakarak a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; askeri ad\u0131mlar fiyatlar\u0131 gece boyunca z\u0131platabilir. Bu ortamda sadece \u201cyukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131\u201d y\u00f6n tahminiyle pozisyon almak \u00e7ok riskli.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlikte, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak yerine b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete pozisyon almak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri kullanmas\u0131 daha uygun olabilir. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa (\u00f6rne\u011fin petrol fiyat\u0131na) ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerdir. USO (petrol\u00fc izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) veya WTI vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda Temmuz-A\u011fustos vadeli \u201cstraddle\u201d ya da geni\u015f \u201cstrangle\u201d stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Straddle, ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler. Strangle ise farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p yine b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketi hedefler. Bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131yla sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla sert y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunda, y\u00fckselen oynakl\u0131ktan fayda sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde sert rota de\u011fi\u015fimi: WTI %4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 88,90 dolara indi. ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 umudu zay\u0131flarken H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. OVX 35 \u00fcst\u00fc; piyasalar bar\u0131\u015fta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada s\u0131\u00e7rama fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47476"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47476\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}