ABD\u2019nin Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde yeniden d\u00fczenledi\u011fi askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f geriledi. Alt\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 d\u00fc\u015ferken, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f de benzer hareket etti. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan geldi ve son haftalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc ili\u015fkiyi yans\u0131tt\u0131: Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselince enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi) endi\u015fesi art\u0131yor, bu da faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Faiz beklentisi y\u00fckseldi\u011finde, faiz getirisi olmayan (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demeyen) alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi metaller \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n
Commerzbank, \u0130ran\u2019la gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesinin y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru iki metalde de toparlanmay\u0131 destekleyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde alt\u0131nla ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 (1 ons alt\u0131n almak i\u00e7in ka\u00e7 ons g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steren oran) ocak sonundan beri 60-65 band\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve son iki haftada neredeyse de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Bankaya g\u00f6re sava\u015f hemen bitse bile piyasalar\u0131n normale d\u00f6nmesi zaman alabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2.850 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; son bir haftada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k %2. Bu hareket, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki son sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Brent petrol 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Brent (Kuzey Denizi kaynakl\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte referans kabul edilen petrol fiyat\u0131) bu y\u00fckseli\u015fle, son haftalarda piyasalara hakim olan al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k petrol-alt\u0131n ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle i\u015fliyor: Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselince enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 korkusu art\u0131yor; bu da merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye itiyor. Nisan ay\u0131 man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; genel enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelerek %3,8 olmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu riske daha duyarl\u0131 hale getirdi. Alt\u0131n faiz getirisi sunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, daha y\u00fcksek faiz ihtimali alt\u0131n\u0131 faiz getiren varl\u0131klara (\u00f6rne\u011fin tahvil\/mevduat) g\u00f6re daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle pozisyon alanlar i\u00e7in bunun bir f\u0131rsat oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Diplomatik ilerleme i\u015faretleri veya tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 geri \u00e7ekebilir; bu da enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131p alt\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir. Enerjideki mevcut \u201cjeopolitik risk primi\u201dnin (sava\u015f\/gerilim nedeniyle fiyata eklenen ekstra pay) s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, alt\u0131ndaki beklenen toparlanmadan yararlanmak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. \u00d6zellikle 2026\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde vadesi dolan ve 2.950 ile 3.000 dolar \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131\u201d (strike; opsiyonun i\u015flem g\u00f6rece\u011fi sabit fiyat) olan s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerde de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, y\u0131l sonuna kadar alt\u0131ndaki belirgin bir toparlanmadan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle kazan\u00e7 hedefler.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fe de ayn\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7eveden bak\u0131lmal\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc alt\u0131nla \u201ckilit ad\u0131m\u201d (\u00e7ok benzer y\u00f6nde) hareket ediyor. Alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131, son dalgalanmaya ra\u011fmen 63 civar\u0131nda dar bir bantta dikkat \u00e7ekici bi\u00e7imde stabil kald\u0131. Bu y\u00fczden g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte benzer al\u0131m opsiyonu stratejileri, ayn\u0131 gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc temas\u0131na daha \u201cy\u00fcksek beta\u201dl\u0131 (piyasa hareketine daha sert tepki veren) bir \u015fekilde kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2022\u2019deki enerji fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan sonra da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130lk arz endi\u015feleri (tedarik kesintisi korkusu) azal\u0131p piyasalar sakinle\u015fince petrol sert d\u00fczeltme (h\u0131zl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme) yapm\u0131\u015f, alt\u0131n ise kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. Mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma oda\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda benzer bir yeniden fiyatlama bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
K\u00f6rfez\u2019de ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 petrol 105 dolar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nca alt\u0131n %2, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f geriledi. Enflasyon-faiz beklentisi metallerde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Commerzbank, gerilim azal\u0131rsa y\u0131l sonuna toparlanma bekliyor; alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 60-65\u2019te.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47473\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}