Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc ikinci seansa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 4.575 dolar civar\u0131nda bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (USD) talep, s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik belirsizlikle destekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca enflasyon endi\u015feleri, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) dahil daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) merkez bankas\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek getirisi olmayan (faiz \u00f6demeyen) alt\u0131ndan para \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ABD g\u00fc\u00e7leri, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019da f\u00fcze noktalar\u0131 ve may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan botlara kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa\u201d (kendini savunma) sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Tahran ise bu ad\u0131m\u0131, Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte olan ate\u015fkesin ihlali olarak niteledi; \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC) misilleme hakk\u0131 oldu\u011fu uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilim; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapanmas\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 abluka ile birlikte petrol\u00fc destekleyerek enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu zeminde Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) May\u0131s\u2019ta faiz art\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasalar, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB), Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) ve Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) y\u0131l sonuna kadar faizleri y\u00fckseltece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed\u2019in Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 d\u00fczeyinde g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nemli bir ABD verisi beklenmedi\u011finden, odak Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131 kurulu olan FOMC \u00fcyelerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na kay\u0131yor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE Fiyat Endeksi (Fed\u2019in en \u00e7ok izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ve ABD GSYH\u2019nin (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme) ikinci tahmini de izlenecek. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD 4.580 dolar \u00e7evresinde zorlan\u0131yor; bu seviye 4 saatlik grafikte 100 periyotluk EMA (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama: fiyat\u0131n ortalama e\u011filimini g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) ile \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 41 civar\u0131nda, MACD (hareketli ortalama yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) negatif b\u00f6lgede. 4.450 dolar alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ge\u00e7i\u015f) d\u00fczeltmeyi derinle\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda ve 4.575 dolar b\u00f6lgesinde bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Zay\u0131flamada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 etkili; dolar, devam eden jeopolitik belirsizlikten destek buluyor. Bu ortam, yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n alt\u0131ndan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131na neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi, dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (riskli d\u00f6nemlerde tercih edilen varl\u0131k) \u00f6zelli\u011fini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) 14,5 seviyesine y\u00fckselerek risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Gerilimin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden petrol arz\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilmesi, enflasyon endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tutuyor. Son ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6 gelmesi, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Piyasalar \u015fimdi Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %55\u2019e yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu durum, faiz getirmeyen alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyetini\u201d (alternatif getiriden vazge\u00e7me maliyeti) art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ederken, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 gerilemeden yararlanabilecek yakla\u015f\u0131mlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Mevcut seviyenin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 \u201cput opsiyon\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilen al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) almak, 4.450 dolar deste\u011finin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir senaryoda tercih edilebilir. 4.580 dolar direnci ise \u015fimdilik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleyenler i\u00e7in, 4.580 dolar direncinin \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa bacak ta\u015f\u0131yan \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda) \u201ccall spread\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon kombinasyonu satarak prim geliri hedefleme) da de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi veya yatay kalmas\u0131 durumunda zamanla prim kazanc\u0131 sa\u011flar. Ancak 4.580 dolar \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015flar h\u0131zland\u0131: XAU\/USD 4.575\u2019te haftal\u0131k dipte. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon, \u015fahin merkez bankas\u0131 beklentilerini art\u0131r\u0131yor; 4.580 diren\u00e7, 4.450 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47471","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47471"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47471\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47471"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47471"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47471"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}