Euro, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda art arda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 30 Nisan\u2019daki olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleden bu yana ilk kez 185,46 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Japon yeni, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n enflasyonda \u201cikinci tur etkiler\u201d konusunda uyar\u0131da bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. \u201c\u0130kinci tur etkiler\u201d, enerji gibi ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n zamanla \u00fccretlere, beklentilere ve \u015firketlerin fiyat belirleme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na yans\u0131yarak enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le getirmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. Ueda ayr\u0131ca merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011ferlendirmemesi gerekti\u011fini, ge\u00e7ici bir enerji \u015fokunun \u00fccretleri ve fiyatlama al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirirse kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fini savundu. Piyasalar 15 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda BoJ\u2019un politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fini (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ya da para politikas\u0131nda daha az destekleyici ad\u0131mlar) fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc, ancak kur tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yeni \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n artan ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131na hassasiyeti ve Japon Devlet Tahvilleri\u2019nin (JGB) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirisi nedeniyle talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla s\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u201cTahvil getirisi\u201d yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n tahvilden elde etti\u011fi faiz\/kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131d\u0131r. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 beklentilerini destekledi. ECB Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Isabel Schnabel Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc, enflasyondaki s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmenin art\u0131k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ba\u015fekonomist Philip Lane de Nikkei\u2019ye verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portajda piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na sakin yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
EUR\/JPY\u2019nin 185,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine y\u00f6nelmesi, m\u00fcdahale riski a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir b\u00f6lgeye girildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle paritede 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cz\u0131mni volatilite\u201d %12,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. \u201cZ\u0131mni volatilite\u201d, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen ve piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki oynakl\u0131k beklentisini g\u00f6steren bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctt\u00fcr. Haziran ay\u0131ndaki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu ortamda sadece y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak daha riskli.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filimli) s\u00f6ylemi, \u201cfaiz fark\u0131\u201d nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediliyor. Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (May\u0131s) %2,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 hedefin belirgin \u00fczerinde. Bu da piyasan\u0131n 15 Haziran\u2019da bir politika ayarlamas\u0131 (faiz ya da al\u0131m programlar\u0131 gibi ara\u00e7larda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma) ihtimalini fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Ancak Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %3,25 iken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB faizi %1,10 seviyesinde. Aradaki 215 baz puanl\u0131k fark (1 baz puan = %0,01), yeni \u201cfonlama\u201d para birimi olarak cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u201cFonlama\u201d, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faizli bir varl\u0131\u011fa yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta Euro\u2019nun da temel deste\u011fi bulunuyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u201c\u00f6nc\u00fc\/\u00f6n veriler\u201d (flash veriler), man\u015fet enflasyonun %2,7\u2019de yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. \u201cMan\u015fet enflasyon\u201d, g\u0131da ve enerji d\u00e2hil genel enflasyon oran\u0131d\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ECB\u2019nin harekete ge\u00e7me ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu nedenle Haziran\u2019da ECB\u2019den 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da Euro i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda en temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almak\u201d oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bunun i\u00e7in Haziran sonuna vadeli EUR\/JPY \u201cstraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u201cStraddle\u201d, ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla (strike) hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almakt\u0131r. \u201cStrangle\u201d ise ayn\u0131 vade ile farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda call ve put almakt\u0131r. Bu stratejiler, merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 sonras\u0131 iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareket olursa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Uzun (y\u00fckseli\u015f) pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma \u00f6nerilir. 2024\u2019teki m\u00fcdahalelerde saatler i\u00e7inde 5-7 yenlik hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fclebildi. \u201cParan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) JPY call opsiyonu almak, Japon yetkililerinin tetikleyebilece\u011fi ani ve sert ters harekete kar\u015f\u0131 k\u00e2r\u0131 koruman\u0131n g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir yolu olabilir. \u201cParan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d, opsiyonun kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131n mevcut piyasa fiyat\u0131na g\u00f6re hen\u00fcz avantaj sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketlerde de\u011fer kazanabildi\u011fi durumu ifade eder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro\/yen 185,46\u2019y\u0131 a\u015farak m\u00fcdahale alarm\u0131n\u0131 yeniden yakt\u0131! BoJ\u2019un \u015fahin uyar\u0131lar\u0131 yene s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek verirken, ECB\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi euroyu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; z\u0131mni volatilite %12,5\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47466","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47466"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47466\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}