ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri seansta genel olarak de\u011fi\u015fmedi; hafif \u201cbull-steepening\u201d (tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesiyle getirilerin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve uzun vadeli getirilerin k\u0131sa vadeye g\u00f6re daha az d\u00fc\u015fmesi) e\u011filimi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. ABD Dolar Endeksi 99,19 seviyesinde yatay seyretti. Faiz beklentileri h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na e\u011filimli): ABD OIS (gecelik endeksli swap; piyasan\u0131n politika faizi beklentisini yans\u0131tan t\u00fcrev) e\u011frisi y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70, ard\u0131ndan gelecek y\u0131l mart ay\u0131na kadar toplam bir tam faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici hissiyat\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanmaya ra\u011fmen zay\u0131f. Conference Board t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 92,8\u2019den 93,1\u2019e hafif y\u00fckselse de h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cnegatif b\u00f6lgede\u201d (zay\u0131f g\u00fcven seviyelerinde). Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanacak nisan enflasyon verilerine \u00e7evrildi. Toplam PCE\u2019nin (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in enflasyon takibinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00f6sterge) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) ise y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri \u00e7o\u011funlukla yatay kal\u0131rken dolar da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yeni ve b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon almaya isteksiz oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerin ana g\u00fcndemi, bu sakinli\u011fi bozabilecek kritik bir enflasyon raporu.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fczeydeki sakinli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131n, opsiyon piyasas\u0131 (belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc piyasa) f\u0131rsat yaratabilecek bir \u00e7eli\u015fkiye i\u015faret ediyor. ABD OIS e\u011frisi 2026 sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, may\u0131sta 95,5\u2019e k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterse de tarihsel olarak zay\u0131f seviyelere yak\u0131n kalan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verisiyle belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00e7eli\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin bir s\u00fcredir g\u00fcvenilir bir ekonomik g\u00f6sterge olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Ancak 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemindeki s\u0131\u00e7rama sonras\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fan enflasyonla birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu bask\u0131, \u00f6zellikle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir grubunda daha belirgin.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler, 28 May\u0131s Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak PCE fiyat endeksi verisinde. Piyasa beklentisi, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,1\u2019lik man\u015fet (toplam) art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor; bu oran Fed\u2019in hedefinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilim nedeniyle, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi) fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Enflasyonun y\u00fcksek gelmesi getirileri y\u00fckseltip hisseleri bask\u0131layabilir; beklenenden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir veri ise \u201crahatlama rallisi\u201dni (k\u00f6t\u00fc beklentilerin gelmemesiyle h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f) tetikleyebilir. B\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu; b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefler) ya da faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (gelecekte belirli fiyattan i\u015flem yapmay\u0131 taahh\u00fct eden s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) opsiyon kurgular\u0131, veri sonras\u0131 belirgin piyasa hareketinden yararlanacak \u015fekilde konumland\u0131r\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sessizlik aldatmas\u0131n: ABD tahvil getirileri\/dolar yatay, \u201cbull-steepening\u201d var. OIS h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u015fahin; y\u0131l sonuna dek %70 art\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor. Zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveniyle \u00e7eli\u015fen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde g\u00f6zler per\u015fembe PCE\u2019de; oynakl\u0131k\/straddle f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47465","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47465"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47465\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47465"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47465"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47465"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}