Minneapolis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n art\u0131k k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok ABD\u2019de daha y\u00fcksek enflasyondan endi\u015fe duydu\u011funu, ancak her ikisini de izlemeleri gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Kashkari, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bundan sonra \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d bir politika duru\u015funu hedeflemesi gerekti\u011fini savundu. Ayr\u0131ca, nisan ay\u0131nda faiz konusunda kar\u015f\u0131 oy vermesinden bu yana gelen ABD verilerinin \u00e7o\u011funun, enflasyon riskinin azalmaktan \u00e7ok artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirtti. Piyasada ekim ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n beklentileri fiyatlara yans\u0131tmas\u0131) soruldu\u011funda ise, bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n zaman\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok erken oldu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Kashkari, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon \u015fokunun (fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 iten ani ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etki) kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu ve k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n tahvil piyasas\u0131na yans\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bunun ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; Dolar Endeksi (ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,05 seviyesinde %0,1 geriledi. Fed, %2 enflasyon hedefiyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r ve y\u0131lda sekiz kez 12 yetkiliden olu\u015fan Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) \u00fczerinden faiz ve para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 al\u0131r. Fed ayr\u0131ca Parasal Geni\u015fleme\u2019yi (Quantitative Easing: piyasadan tahvil alarak para arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rma; genelde dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r) veya Parasal S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma\u2019y\u0131 (Quantitative Tightening: bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme, piyasaya likiditeyi azaltma; genelde dolar\u0131 destekler) kullanabilir.<\/p>\n
Sinyaller, Fed\u2019in ana \u00f6nceli\u011finin yava\u015flayan i\u015f piyasas\u0131 de\u011fil y\u00fcksek enflasyon oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da \u201cn\u00f6tr ile \u015fahin\u201d (\u015fahin: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutmay\u0131 tercih eden) bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor; yani faizlerin yak\u0131n zamanda indirilmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201cy\u00fcksek ve uzun s\u00fcre\u201d (faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) ortam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bunu son veriler de destekliyor. Nisan T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketicinin sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 mal ve hizmetlerin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7er) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6 ile beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi; fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden yava\u015f geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. G\u0131da ve enerjiyi d\u0131\u015flayan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (ge\u00e7ici oynak kalemleri ay\u0131klayan daha \u201ctemel\u201d e\u011filim) %3,8 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu; bu da Fed\u2019in temkinli duru\u015funu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da Fed\u2019e oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 enflasyona \u00e7evirmek i\u00e7in alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Nisan ay\u0131 istihdam raporuna g\u00f6re ekonomi 240 bin yeni istihdam yaratt\u0131; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %3,7 ile tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede kald\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, istihdam\u0131 canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in faiz indirme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almak g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde put (put opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma) almak, faiz indirimi beklentileri \u00f6telenirken tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha da gerileyebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumlu olabilir. Ayr\u0131ca faiz swaplar\u0131 (faiz takas\u0131: sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edilmesi) de\u011ferlendirilebilir; de\u011fi\u015fken faiz (piyasa faizine g\u00f6re s\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fen faiz) tahsil edecek \u015fekilde pozisyon almak, faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 senaryosuna dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Kur taraf\u0131nda bu tablo ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in destekleyici g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. K\u0131sa s\u00fcreli sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 104,50 civar\u0131nda destek bulup yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nelme potansiyeli oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Merkez bankas\u0131 daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (g\u00fcvercin: b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz isteyen) olan para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolarda al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc call (call opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131; y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynar) opsiyonlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kashkari: Enflasyon riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor, Fed n\u00f6tr-\u015fahin hatta kalmal\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu \u015foku kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilir; ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in erken. \u201cY\u00fcksek ve uzun s\u00fcre\u201d faizi g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken DXY s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47462\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}