{"id":47461,"date":"2026-05-27T09:49:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T09:49:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/snb-guvercin-durusunu-korurken-isvicre-frangi-zayifliyor-yatirimcilar-iran-riskine-karsi-korunurken-volatilite-satiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T09:49:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T09:49:12","slug":"snb-guvercin-durusunu-korurken-isvicre-frangi-zayifliyor-yatirimcilar-iran-riskine-karsi-korunurken-volatilite-satiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/snb-guvercin-durusunu-korurken-isvicre-frangi-zayifliyor-yatirimcilar-iran-riskine-karsi-korunurken-volatilite-satiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"SNB G\u00fcvercin Duru\u015funu Korurken \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 Zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u0130ran Riskine Kar\u015f\u0131 Korunurken Volatilite Sat\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi (PMI: \u015firketlerin \u00fcretim, sipari\u015f ve istihdam e\u011filimlerini \u00f6l\u00e7en erken g\u00f6sterge) verileri g\u00fc\u00e7lense de, enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) yak\u0131n vadede para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na dair bask\u0131 olu\u015fmad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca politika, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 (CHF) de\u011ferlenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 konumlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselirken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,3 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, faizlerde \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu destekliyor.<\/p>\n

SNB Mart ay\u0131nda, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle enflasyonun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde daha belirgin artabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; ayr\u0131ca d\u00f6viz (FX) piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etme isteklili\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. \u015eubat ay\u0131n\u0131n son i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnden bu yana CHF, G10 (geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin 10 b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimi grubu) i\u00e7inde en k\u00f6t\u00fc performans g\u00f6steren \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc para birimi oldu. Bu tablo, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizler ve m\u00fcdahaleye daha haz\u0131r bir merkez bankas\u0131 birle\u015fimi alt\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli liman (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) talebinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalar, olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimalini ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na dair i\u015faretleri izlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; belirsizlik devam ederse, g\u00fcvenli limanlara talep yeniden canlanabilir.<\/p>\n

SNB Politikas\u0131, CHF Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Oynakl\u0131k Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Nisan\u2019da man\u015fet enflasyonun yaln\u0131zca %0,6 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, SNB\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funu (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na mesafeli, destekleyici politika) de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir neden g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda frang\u0131 zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahaleye daha istekli oldu\u011funu net bi\u00e7imde ifade etti. Bu tutum, frang\u0131n de\u011ferlenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131 ve CHF\u2019yi \u015eubat sonundan bu yana G10\u2019un en zay\u0131f para birimlerinden biri yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu ortam, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 (volatility selling: kur dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle opsiyon satmak) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. EUR\/CHF kuru \u015fu anda 0,9850 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, SNB\u2019nin paritede (1,00 seviyesi) kurun daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gitmesini engelleyen bir \u201ctaban\u201d olu\u015fturabildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da frang\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. 1 ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %4,5 civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor. Bu da CHF al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satarak prim toplamak (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda gelir elde etmek) isteyenler i\u00e7in bir alan yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik Gerilim Kaynakl\u0131 Riskler ve Korunma Yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Ancak \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 \u00f6nemli jeopolitik risk g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Herhangi bir t\u0131rmanma, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 etraf\u0131nda, SNB\u2019nin \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015farak franga g\u00fcvenli liman olarak ani bir y\u00f6nelimi tetikleyebilir. 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde EUR\/CHF\u2019nin birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde 1,04\u2019ten paritenin alt\u0131na gerilemesi buna \u00f6rnek.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle, mevcut sakin seyirden faydalan\u0131rken ani \u015foka kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedging: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon\/opsiyonla sigorta) i\u00e7eren bir yap\u0131 daha temkinli olur. \u00d6rne\u011fin EUR\/CHF veya USD\/CHF gibi paritelerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasadan uzak sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money put: mevcut kurun alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131) almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu pozisyonlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr; jeopolitik gerilim artar ve franga ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f olursa, \u00f6nemli kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PMI g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor ama enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck: SNB \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201dde, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bask\u0131s\u0131 yok. Frank\u0131 zay\u0131flatmaya haz\u0131r banka CHF\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite sat\u0131\u015fa uygun. \u0130ran\/H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski i\u00e7in ucuz putlarla korunma \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47461","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47461"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47461\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}