Sterlin, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. GBP\/USD paritesi (Sterlin\/ABD Dolar\u0131), 1,3500 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011finin (piyasada \u201cyuvarlak seviye\u201d olarak yak\u0131ndan izlenen fiyat) hemen \u00fczerinden g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k iki haftan\u0131n zirvesinden \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn geri \u00e7ekildikten sonra dipten al\u0131mlarla yeniden toparland\u0131. Parite 1,3400\u2019l\u00fc seviyelerin ortas\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 1,3450\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim korundu; ancak jeopolitik belirsizlik kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bitirecek bir anla\u015fma beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte olan ate\u015fkesi ihlal etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n misilleme tehdidi \u201crisk primi\u201dni (piyasan\u0131n belirsizlik nedeniyle ek getiri talebi) y\u00fcksek tutarken, bu durum g\u00fcvenli liman (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde tercih edilen) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Politika taraf\u0131 da y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenledi. Piyasalar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filimi) beklentileri ile \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 BoE\u2019nin \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. BoE politika faizini (Bank Rate) \u00fc\u00e7 toplant\u0131d\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste %3,75\u2019te tutuyor; son karar 8\u2019e 1 oyla faizlerin sabit kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, bir \u00fcye art\u0131\u015ftan yana oy verdi. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de T\u00dcFE (CPI) enflasyonu %3,3 seviyesinde. BoE, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisinin (enerji maliyetlerinin fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde enflasyonu yukar\u0131 itmesini bekliyor. ABD\u2019de ise yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bir ay \u00f6nce daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olan Temmuz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini daha belirgin \u015fekilde fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131n\u0131n (faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n) \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131lmamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Sterlinin 1,3450\u2019nin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak yukar\u0131 hareket alan\u0131 1,3500 civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131 piyasa verilerine de yans\u0131yor. CBOE British Pound Volatility Index (BPVIX) (Sterlin i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 6,5 civar\u0131nda ve bu seviye aylard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferlerden biri; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lma beklemedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, paritede bir s\u00fcre \u201ckonsolidasyon\u201d (fiyat\u0131n belirli bir bantta g\u00fc\u00e7 toplamas\u0131) olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu yatay hareketin temel nedeni, BoE ile Fed\u2019in ayn\u0131 anda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131. \u0130ki merkez bankas\u0131 da faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in, normalde GBP\/USD\u2019yi hareketlendiren faiz fark\u0131 etkisi zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu kurumlardan biri net bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sinyali verene kadar, paritenin belirgin bir trend olmadan bant i\u00e7inde hareket etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Her iki kurum da hedefin \u00fczerinde kalan enflasyonla u\u011fra\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyon %3,3 ve Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesi bu bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. Bu ortak sorun, t\u00fcrev piyasalarda (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde) daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fun fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed\u2019in politika faizine dair piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) Temmuz\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %25 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6steriyor. Bu beklenti ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na zemin destek verirken, Sterlinin y\u00fckseli\u015fini de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin Asya\u2019da dipten al\u0131mlarla toparland\u0131: GBP\/USD 1,3450 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunuyor, 1,3500 bariyeri zorluyor. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin fiyatlamas\u0131 dolar\u0131 desteklerken, BoE\u2019nin bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015fu y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47457\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}