GBP\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa y\u00fckseldi; Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3500 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinden gelen geri \u00e7ekilmenin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi ederek 1,3400\u2019lerin ortas\u0131 civar\u0131nda tutundu. Bu hareket, enflasyonun yeniden h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesinin azalmas\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bar\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir anlay\u0131\u015fa dair umutlar\u0131n tazelenmesinin ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmas\u0131yla geldi. Ancak daha geni\u015f jeopolitik belirsizlik, y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclece\u011fi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu ad\u0131m\u0131 Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte oldu\u011fu belirtilen ate\u015fkesin ihlali olarak nitelendirirken, IRGC (\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n askeri g\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7inde etkili bir yap\u0131) misilleme uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. \u00d6te yandan Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz indirimi yerine faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya y\u00fcksek faizi uzun s\u00fcre koruma e\u011filiminde) duru\u015funun piyasalarda fiyatlanmas\u0131, dolar\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015fmesini engelledi. Sterlin taraf\u0131nda ise yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3\u2019ten %2,8\u2019e gerilemesiyle \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinin \u00f6telenmesi sonras\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca yeni bir \u0130ngiltere veya ABD makro verisi (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, istihdam, enflasyon gibi ekonomiyi g\u00f6steren veriler) yokken, \u0130ngiltere\u2019deki siyasi belirsizlik de temkini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sinyallerin \u00e7eli\u015fkili olmas\u0131 nedeniyle GBP\/USD\u2019nin dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funun dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren etkisi, enflasyon endi\u015fesinin azalmas\u0131 ve diplomasi umutlar\u0131n\u0131n dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatan etkisiyle do\u011frudan \u00e7arp\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesi, yak\u0131n vadede net bir y\u00f6n hareketine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde pozisyon almay\u0131 riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Son ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP; tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) raporu 275 bin ki\u015filik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek, Fed\u2019in Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini canl\u0131 tuttu. Bu durum ABD dolar\u0131na taban olu\u015fturuyor ve GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3550\u2019nin \u00fczerine kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak ABD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam, jeopolitik dalgalanmalara ra\u011fmen dolar\u0131 destekleyen bir unsur oldu.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda sterlin, kendi nedenleriyle zorlan\u0131yor. Enflasyonun beklentiden h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fumas\u0131 (%2,8) ve ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019nin (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) yaln\u0131zca %0,2 artmas\u0131, BoE\u2019nin en az\u0131ndan d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d (faizde de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmeme) \u00e7izgisinde kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Fed ile BoE aras\u0131ndaki bu para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, sterlin i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bask\u0131 unsuru.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019la ilgili jeopolitik tablo, tamamen \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez bir katman ekleyerek \u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) yukar\u0131 itiyor. GBP\/USD\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (1 ay vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi dalgalanma) yaln\u0131zca son bir haftada %7,5\u2019ten %9,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ya sert bir harekete ya da yatay seyre g\u00f6re kurgulanm\u0131\u015f stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cstrangle\u201d (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte al\u0131narak sert hareket beklenmesi) ile k\u0131r\u0131lma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak veya \u201ciron condor\u201d (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, belirli bantta kalma durumunda kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) ile bant i\u00e7inde kal\u0131\u015ftan fayda sa\u011flamak gibi.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki jeopolitik gerilimlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen, d\u00f6vizlerin temel verilerden \u00e7ok haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla (man\u015fetlerle) dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. \u0130ran\u2019la ani bir yumu\u015fama 1,3600\u2019e do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k askeri bir misilleme, \u201cg\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (riskli varl\u0131klardan dolara ve devlet tahvillerine y\u00f6nelim) art\u0131rarak pariteyi 1,3300 deste\u011fine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/USD Asya\u2019da toparlan\u0131p 1,3400\u2019lerde tutundu: Dolar, enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131 ve diplomasi umutlar\u0131yla bask\u0131 g\u00f6rse de Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi ve \u0130ran gerilimi y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47447"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47447\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}