USD\/JPY \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 159,20 civar\u0131na geriledi. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yeniden d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemler, yeni ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destekledi. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, enflasyonun h\u0131z\u0131na dair yeni ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Nisan Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililer, sert kur hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131m atmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. D\u00f6viz diplomasisinden sorumlu Atsushi Mimura, spek\u00fclatif \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u201d (yenin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flemler) yak\u0131ndan izlenece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, ABD Hazine tahvili faizlerini yukar\u0131 itmemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa (kurda ani ve sert dalgalanma) kar\u015f\u0131 Japonya\u2019n\u0131n her an harekete ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fini belirtti. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda ise Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 Japonya i\u00e7in be\u015finci b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol \u015foku olarak niteledi; sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00fccretler, beklentiler ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 gibi ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 ko\u015fullar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u00d6te yandan ABD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019daki botlar ve f\u00fcze noktalar\u0131na \u201csavunma ama\u00e7l\u0131\u201d sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi; \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 (IRGC) ise ate\u015fkes ihlallerine kar\u015f\u0131 misilleme hakk\u0131n\u0131 sakl\u0131 tuttu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY paritesi 159,20 seviyesinde k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir b\u00f6lgede. Bu seviye, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Japon makamlar\u0131n\u0131n sert tepki verdi\u011fi bir e\u015fik olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yetkililerin a\u00e7\u0131k uyar\u0131lar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadede d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (devletin piyasaya do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak kuru etkilemesi) riski \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024\u2019te yeni savunmak i\u00e7in 60 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kaynak kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011fine benzer \u015fekilde, 160\u2019a do\u011fru her hareket h\u0131zl\u0131 ve birka\u00e7 yenlik bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik, opsiyon piyasas\u0131na (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) da yans\u0131yor. USD\/JPY\u2019de 1 haftal\u0131k \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak \u00e7eyre\u011fin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine geldi. Bu nedenle, belirli bir y\u00f6n yerine sert fiyat hareketine haz\u0131rlanmak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD PCE verisi \u00f6ncesinde \u201cstraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d (kurun yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131) gibi stratejiler, veri sonras\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f ya da olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketi yakalamay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE raporu bir sonraki ana tetikleyici konumunda. Piyasa beklentisi, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 artmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Beklentiden y\u00fcksek bir veri, dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek BoJ\u2019un kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 test edebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k enflasyonda daha zay\u0131f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Japon yetkililere piyasadan daha az diren\u00e7 g\u00f6rerek m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in uygun bir zemin yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlanma dengesiz oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in piyasa ani bir ters harekete a\u00e7\u0131k. ABD Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Komisyonu (CFTC) verileri, ticari ama\u00e7la i\u015flem yapmayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n (fonlar gibi) yen aleyhine net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini ve 145.000 kontrat\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bir m\u00fcdahale ya da beklenenden zay\u0131f PCE verisi, \u201cshort squeeze\u201di (k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar\u0131n zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 al\u0131ma ge\u00e7mesiyle y\u00fckseli\u015fin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi) tetikleyerek JPY\u2019deki toparlanmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
159,20\u2019ye \u00e7ekilen USD\/JPY\u2019de g\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe PCE\u2019de: Japon yetkililer m\u00fcdahale sinyali veriyor. 160 e\u015fi\u011fi kritik. Opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 %12\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131. Rekor yen short\u2019lar\u0131 short squeeze riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47446","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47446"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47446\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}