WTI, \u00f6nceki seansta %3\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldikten sonra geri \u00e7ekildi. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91,90 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na do\u011fru ilerleme ihtimalini de\u011ferlendirirken fiyatlar da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin belirsizlikle \u015fekillendi. ABD ordusu, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde \u201cme\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa\u201d ama\u00e7l\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi\u011fini (kendini savunma gerek\u00e7esiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 askeri operasyon) a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 ise \u0130ran hava sahas\u0131n\u0131 ihlal etti\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir Amerikan F-35 sava\u015f u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve birka\u00e7 \u0130HA\u2019y\u0131 (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130ran medyas\u0131nda sal\u0131 erken saatlerde patlamalar ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan, H\u00fcrm\u00fczgan eyaletindeki ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131, k\u0131r\u0131lgan ve yedi haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak durdurulmas\u0131) \u201ca\u011f\u0131r ihlali\u201d olarak k\u0131nad\u0131. Bu gerilim, daha geni\u015f \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 durdurmay\u0131 ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in engellemeleri kald\u0131rmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan bir \u201cmutabakat metni\u201dne (taraflar\u0131n genel \u00e7er\u00e7evede anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6n anla\u015fma) y\u00f6nelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 zora sokabilir. \u0130lk anla\u015fmada, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 gibi daha zor ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir s\u00fcre \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Suudi Arabistan, Katar ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019a diplomasiyi \u00f6nceliklendirme \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio ise nihai anla\u015fman\u0131n birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn daha s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini belirtirken, Tahran\u2019\u0131n dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131 (kullan\u0131m\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlanan finansal varl\u0131klar) ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan deniz ge\u00e7i\u015finin k\u0131s\u0131tlanmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcvence konular\u0131nda anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bir yanda \u0130ran\u2019dan gelen olumsuz diplomatik mesajlar (fiyat\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iten beklenti), di\u011fer yanda askeri gerilimin artmas\u0131 (fiyat\u0131 yukar\u0131 iten risk) var. Bir tarafta bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131, di\u011fer tarafta b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimali bulunmas\u0131 piyasada belirgin bir gerginlik yarat\u0131yor. Piyasa b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekete haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor ancak y\u00f6n belirsiz.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlikte, y\u00f6ne bahis oynamak yerine \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d sat\u0131n almak (fiyat\u0131n sert hareket edece\u011fine oynay\u0131p y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00f6nemsememek) daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) \u015fu anda 32 civar\u0131nda; bu seviye, bir gecede t\u0131rmanabilecek bir risk ortam\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor. Y\u00fckseli\u015f ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f fark etmeksizin sert bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli kontratlarda \u201cout-of-the-money strangle\u201dlara (paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda strangle: biri al\u0131m opsiyonu, di\u011feri sat\u0131m opsiyonu; ikisi de mevcut fiyattan uzak seviyelerde se\u00e7ilir ve fiyat hangi y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giderse gitsin kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir) bak\u0131yoruz. Bu strateji, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin sonucunu do\u011fru tahmin etmeye gerek kalmadan yakla\u015fan k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Ama\u00e7, oynakl\u0131ktaki ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz s\u0131\u00e7ramadan yararlanacak opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) elde tutmak.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik g\u00fcndemin \u00f6tesinde, temel g\u00f6stergeler de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor; bu da oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 ihtimalini destekliyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) raporu, ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 3,1 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (beklenenden fazla stok gerilemesi) g\u00f6sterdi. Ayr\u0131ca OPEC+\u2019\u0131n (OPEC ve ortak \u00fcreticiler) \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek boyunca s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye kararl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor. Bu unsurlar fiyat\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak bir taban olu\u015fturuyor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanmay\u0131 da daha sert fiyat hareketlerine a\u00e7\u0131k hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde f\u0131rt\u0131na \u00f6ncesi sessizlik mi? WTI %3\u2019l\u00fck rallinin ard\u0131ndan 91,90 dolara \u00e7ekildi; ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. OVX 32 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; strangle stratejisi masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47445","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47445"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47445\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47445"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47445"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47445"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}