AUD\/NZD, yakla\u015f\u0131k 2013\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Temmuz ay\u0131ndaki dipten bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %14 y\u00fckselen parite, son on ay\u0131n sekizinde art\u0131da kapanarak bu ayla birlikte 11 aya uzanabilecek bir y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Hareketin ana nedeni, para politikas\u0131ndaki sert ayr\u0131\u015fma: Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ), ekonomik yava\u015flama s\u0131ras\u0131nda politika faizi olan Resm\u00ee Nakit Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Official Cash Rate \u2013 OCR) %5,5 zirvesinden %2,25\u2019e indirdi. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kal\u0131p enflasyon y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l faizi \u00fc\u00e7 kez art\u0131rarak %4,35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 petrol \u015fokunun fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla bu ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00fc\u00e7lendi ve Avustralya lehine faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak ivme test ediliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fini durdurma riski var. RBNZ son \u00fc\u00e7 toplant\u0131da faizi sabit tuttu ve enflasyon hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 a\u015farak %4\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131rken yeniden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sinyali, \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015f) d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini i\u015faret ediyor. RBA ise \u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan beklemeye ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi. Teknik tarafta Stochastic RSI (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m \u00f6l\u00e7en bir momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 80\u2019e yak\u0131n; parite 1,2300 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu b\u00f6lge yakla\u015f\u0131k 157 ay \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama ise 1,2100 civar\u0131nda. G\u00f6zler \u00e7ar\u015fambaya \u00e7evrildi: Avustralya T\u00dcFE (CPI \u2013 t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) 01:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; ard\u0131ndan 02:00\u2019de RBNZ faiz karar\u0131 ve 03:00\u2019te bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 var. Piyasa beklentisi y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %4,6\u2019dan %4,4\u2019e gerilemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler 1,2250, 1,2400 ve 1,2200.<\/p>\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 uzun s\u00fcredir s\u00fcren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fi nedeniyle trendin olgunla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. AUD\/NZD \u00e7apraz kur (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri), 2013\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirveleri zorluyor; bu da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (\u201ct\u00fcrev\u201d, de\u011feri kur\/faiz gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu d\u00f6nem rahat davranma de\u011fil, risk y\u00f6netimi ve olas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131k d\u00f6nemi.<\/p>\n
Rallinin temel nedeni olan RBA-RBNZ politika fark\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi art\u0131k durabilir. Yeni veriler Yeni Zelanda enflasyonunun y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,0 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, RBNZ\u2019nin daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir mesaj vermesi olas\u0131. Bu durum, piyasan\u0131n \u00f6nceki \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi\/gev\u015feme yanl\u0131s\u0131) varsay\u0131mlar\u0131na ters d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ve Kiwi dolar\u0131na (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131) destek olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe oynayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, bu haftaki kritik veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde AUD\/NZD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak net ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir strateji sunuyor. Opsiyon, belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 verir; b\u00f6ylece Avustralya T\u00dcFE\u2019si zay\u0131f gelir ve RBNZ \u015fahin duru\u015fu netle\u015ftirirse paritede 1,2100\u2019e do\u011fru olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 do\u011far. \u00d6denen prim (opsiyonun maliyeti) maksimum zarard\u0131r; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc trend ortam\u0131nda bu s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, y\u00f6n ne olursa olsun sert hareket riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m\/call hem sat\u0131m\/put opsiyonu almak; oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynar) beklenen oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. Avustralya enflasyonunun yava\u015flamas\u0131 beklense de son ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE verisi asl\u0131nda %3,6\u2019ya h\u0131zland\u0131; bu y\u00fczden RBA\u2019dan \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz ihtimali tamamen d\u0131\u015flanamaz.<\/p>\n
Halihaz\u0131rda uzun (al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in de k\u00e2r\u0131 korumak ad\u0131na uygun bir d\u00f6nem. Trendden tamamen \u00e7\u0131kmadan, sat\u0131m opsiyonuyla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunma al\u0131nabilir veya \u201ccollar\u201d (koruma stratejisi: maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak bir al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p, bunun gelirini koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu almaya kullanmak) kurulabilir. Bu yap\u0131, parite 1,2400\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckselirse getiriyi tamamen kapatmadan kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flar; ancak 1,2200 alt\u0131na sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/NZD 2013 zirvesinde: Temmuz dibinden %14 ralli, faiz ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla beslendi. Ancak momentum yoruluyor; RBNZ \u015fahinle\u015febilir, RBA beklemeye ge\u00e7ebilir. \u00c7ar\u015famba T\u00dcFE-RBNZ takvimi sert oynakl\u0131k yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47442"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47442\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}