G\u00fcney Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bank of Korea), haziranda imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00fcvenin iyile\u015fti\u011fini bildirdi. \u0130malat Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u0130\u015f Anketi Endeksi (BSI \u2014 \u015firketlerin beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7en anket endeksi) 80\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. \u00d6nceki ay 72 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen endeks, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile daralmay\u0131 ay\u0131ran 100 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu da \u00fcreticilerin genel ko\u015fullar\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 zay\u0131f g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak 80\u2019e y\u00fckseli\u015f, may\u0131staki 72\u2019ye g\u00f6re haziranda tonun g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n haziran imalat BSI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 80\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, 100\u2019l\u00fck n\u00f6tr seviyenin alt\u0131nda olsa da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cyukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u201d sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 72\u2019den 80\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rama, g\u00fcvenin belirgin bi\u00e7imde toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve imalattaki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n dip yap\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Buna paralel olarak G\u00fcney Kore piyasas\u0131na \u201cyukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc\u201d pozisyonlanma (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, nisan ay\u0131 ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,2 artmas\u0131yla destekleniyor. Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc yar\u0131 iletken (\u00e7ip) sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f oldu. Bu, BSI\u2019daki ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck iyimserli\u011fin (gelece\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7en beklenti g\u00f6stergesi) somut verilerle uyumlu oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, b\u00fcy\u00fck Koreli teknoloji ve sanayi ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (call option \u2014 belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) gibi y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisine dayal\u0131 ara\u00e7lar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kore Wonu da g\u00fc\u00e7lenme sinyali verdi. USD\/KRW kuru (1 ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 won) bu ay 1380\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k 1350\u2019ye geriledi. Olumlu ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrse (piyasan\u0131n \u201criskli\u201d g\u00f6rme e\u011filimi azal\u0131rsa) bu e\u011filim s\u00fcrebilir. Bu nedenle USD\/KRW vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures \u2014 ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) dolar aleyhine pozisyon ya da KRW al\u0131m opsiyonu gibi wonun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na oynayan i\u015flemler de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak BSI\u2019daki h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanmalar, KOSPI 200 endeksinde (G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin \u00f6nde gelen 200 hissesi) kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerden \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclebildi; 2020 toparlanma d\u00f6nemindeki modele benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmden s\u00f6z ediliyor. Endeks may\u0131sta zaten %4 y\u00fckseldi; bu da ivmenin (fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede temmuz ve a\u011fustos vadeli KOSPI 200 vadeli i\u015flemleri veya \u201ccall spread\u201d (al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i \u2014 iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p satarak maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik y\u00f6n daha netle\u015firken, Kore hisselerinde \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (implied volatility \u2014 opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcreyen beklenen dalgalanma) yakla\u015f\u0131k %18 olan y\u00fcksek seviyelerden gerilemesi bekleniyor. Bu, EWY gibi KOSPI\u2019ye ba\u011fl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u201czarar durdurma e\u015fi\u011finden uzak\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put \u2014 mevcut fiyattan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Bu strateji, prim geliri (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla al\u0131nan \u00fccret) sa\u011flarken piyasaya \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle pozisyon almay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz toparlanma: Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 imalat BSI\u2019\u0131 haziranda 72\u2019den 80\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; e\u015fik 100 alt\u0131 s\u00fcrse de ihracat (%5,2), \u00e7ipler, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc won ve KOSPI\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47441\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}