GBP\/USD, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) para politikas\u0131 duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n birbirine yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla yatay seyrediyor. Bu nedenle iki \u00fclkenin faiz fark\u0131 (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sabit kal\u0131rken, her iki kurum da petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki \u015fokun enflasyonu yukar\u0131 itmesi riskini izliyor. BoE, politika faizi olan Bank Rate\u2019i (\u0130ngiltere\u2019nin temel faiz oran\u0131) \u00fc\u00e7 toplant\u0131d\u0131r %3,75\u2019te tuttu. Son kararda 8\u2019e 1 oyla \u201cfaiz sabit\u201d karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE (CPI, t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) %3,3 seviyesinde ve resmi tahminler enerji maliyetlerinin fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n (pass-through: maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na aktar\u0131lmas\u0131) s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ABD\u2019de ise Fed\u2019in sert (hawkish: enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 faiz art\u0131rmaya e\u011filimli) ileti\u015fimini korumas\u0131 ve ayn\u0131 petrol kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 nedeniyle, bir ay \u00f6nce \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fclen temmuz ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riski piyasada yeniden fiyatlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta, 50 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama: son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) 1,3400\u20131,3450 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Y\u0131l boyunca 1,3200\u20131,3900 geni\u015f aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 korunuyor. Stokastik RSI (momentum g\u00f6stergesi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesini \u00f6l\u00e7er) fiyat k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 olmadan alt banda do\u011fru geriledi. Bir sonraki olas\u0131 tetikleyici, per\u015fembe 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) verisi. \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3, man\u015fet PCE\u2019nin (genel) ise %3,8\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Bu da, bir k\u0131r\u0131lma olursa bunun b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla hazirandaki bir sonraki BoE karar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce \u0130ngiltere\u2019den de\u011fil, dolar kaynakl\u0131 olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD, BoE ile Fed\u2019in ayn\u0131 \u00e7izgide ilerlemesi nedeniyle s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Her iki merkez bankas\u0131 da faizi sabit tutarken enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 izliyor; bu da politika taraf\u0131nda bir kilitlenme yarat\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ge\u00e7en ay enflasyonun beklentilerin \u00fczerinde %4,2\u2019de kalmas\u0131, BoE\u2019nin temkinli duru\u015funu daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; ABD\u2019de de tablo benzer.<\/p>\n
Atlantik\u2019in di\u011fer yakas\u0131nda da hik\u00e2ye neredeyse ayn\u0131. Bu nedenle iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 yerinde say\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek PCE (Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %2,8 ile %2 hedefinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde. Bu y\u00fczden, piyasa beklentilerini takip eden CME FedWatch gibi ara\u00e7larda eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %25\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131; bu senaryo birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6nce pek g\u00fcndemde de\u011fildi.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma grafiklerde de net. 50 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar 1,2520\u20131,2580 band\u0131nda birbirine yakla\u015farak fiyat\u0131 bu b\u00f6lgeye \u00e7ekiyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u201cilgi yoklu\u011fu\u201d de\u011fil, yeni bir haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketin gelebilece\u011fi bir \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 tetikleyecek ana unsurun Londra\u2019dan \u00e7ok Washington\u2019dan gelmesi daha olas\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u0130ngiltere veri takvimi g\u00f6rece sakin; bu da sterline i\u00e7eriden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6n verici haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Bu nedenle g\u00f6zler ABD istihdam ve enflasyon verilerinde olacak. Bu veriler Fed\u2019in sonraki ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyecek.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdilik bu yatay piyasada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan (volatilite: fiyat\u0131n dalgalanma \u015fiddeti) faydalanan opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Parite 1,2500\u20131,2600 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcrken prim (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) toplamak i\u00e7in, bu band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na yerle\u015ftirilen k\u0131sa vadeli strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede, biri al\u0131m biri sat\u0131m olmak \u00fczere iki opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131; fiyat belirli bir aral\u0131kta kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, zaman de\u011ferinin erimesinden (time decay: vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyonun zaman de\u011ferinin azalmas\u0131) yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck f\u0131rsat, bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmadan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f an\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmak. 1,2520 deste\u011finin alt\u0131 ya da 1,2580 direncinin \u00fcst\u00fcnde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f izlenecek. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmada put (sat\u0131m opsiyonu: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131yla 1,2300 civar\u0131ndaki y\u0131l\u0131n dipleri hedeflenebilir. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 ise call (al\u0131m opsiyonu: y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\/dolar s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: BoE ve Fed\u2019in duru\u015fu yak\u0131nsarken faiz fark\u0131 sabit, petrol \u015foku enflasyon riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Piyasada temmuz Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeniden fiyatlan\u0131yor; kritik tetikleyici ABD PCE.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47439","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47439"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47439\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47439"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47439"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47439"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}