RSI (g\u00f6receli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) getiri pencereleriyle yap\u0131lan SOX tarihsel analizinde k\u0131sa vadede ortalama -%7, orta vadede +%15\u201325 ve uzun vadede -%8 ile -%26 aras\u0131 sonu\u00e7lara i\u015faret edilmi\u015fti. Sonras\u0131nda endeks 28 Nisan\u2019daki dip seviyeye kadar %6,7 geriledi ve 26 Nisan\u2019daki zirveden bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %21 y\u00fckseldi; bu da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck getiri patikas\u0131n\u0131n genel olarak beklentilerle uyumlu kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Elliott Dalga Prensibi (fiyat hareketlerini dalgalar halinde s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131ran teknik analiz yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) yol haritas\u0131, \u201cbe\u015finci dalgan\u0131n be\u015fincisi\u201d i\u00e7in (y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin son itki b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc anlat\u0131r) 12.110\u201312.300 dolar hedefini vermi\u015f ve bu b\u00f6lge g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 10.000 dolara do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015fti. SOX 14 May\u0131s\u2019ta 12.141 dolarda zirve yapt\u0131, 18 May\u0131s\u2019ta 10.895 dolara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k 12.770 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; endeks i\u00e7in ~12.820 civar\u0131 da referans al\u0131n\u0131yor. Fibonacci ili\u015fkileri (fiyat\u0131n olas\u0131 hedef\/geri \u00e7ekilme seviyelerini oranlarla belirleyen y\u00f6ntem) 13.400\u201314.000 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ye\u015fil W-5 projeksiyonunu (dalga hedefi) \u00e7izerken, %161,8 uzatma (extension: \u00f6nceki hareketin 1,618 kat\u0131na dayal\u0131 hedef) yakla\u015f\u0131k 13.462 dolara konuyor. Bunu izleyen k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 W-iv (d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fczeltme dalgas\u0131) %100,0 uzatma yak\u0131n\u0131nda 9.600 dolarla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor; ard\u0131ndan k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 W-v hedefi 15.000 dolar +\/- 1.000 dolar.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131 iletken endeksi nihai hedefine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, k\u0131sa vadede son bir yukar\u0131 iti\u015f i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 13.400-14.000 dolar b\u00f6lgesine hareket, Nisan 2025\u2019te ba\u015flayan mevcut rallinin son aya\u011f\u0131 gibi duruyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bundan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli vadeye sahip al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; ancak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket etmek gerekir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Nisan 2026\u2019da k\u00fcresel yar\u0131 iletken sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k bazda %2,1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son sekt\u00f6r verileriyle destekleniyor; art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc yapay zek\u00e2 donan\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik talebin s\u00fcrmesi. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck beklentileri (forward guidance: \u015firketlerin gelecek d\u00f6nem sat\u0131\u015f\/k\u00e2r beklentisi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; bu da bu son ralli evresi i\u00e7in tetikleyici unsur. Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn (fundamental: \u015firket ve sekt\u00f6r verilerine dayal\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme) teknik hedefe ta\u015f\u0131maya yetecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Endeks 13.400-14.000 hedefimize ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fczeltme dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131yla belirgin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f bekliyoruz. Bu noktada stratejinin y\u00fckseli\u015ften d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe net bi\u00e7imde d\u00f6nmesi ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 9.600 dolar hedefinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 gerekir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak veya ay\u0131 put spreadi (bear put spread: daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan put satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f stratejisi) kurmak, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in temel yollar olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131 iletken taraf\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131), CBOE\u2019nin VXSOX endeksiyle (SOX\u2019a dayal\u0131 beklenen volatilite g\u00f6stergesi) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 31,5 ile 12 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne indi; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 \u015fu an g\u00f6rece ucuz k\u0131l\u0131yor. Hedef b\u00f6lgeden volatilitede ani s\u0131\u00e7rama, rallinin bitti\u011fine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir teyit say\u0131labilir. 9.600 seviyesine do\u011fru yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019luk bir d\u00fczeltme, benzer \u015fekilde uzayan ralliler sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc dalga geri \u00e7ekilmeleriyle uyumlu.<\/p>\n
En temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m, b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131 almadan \u00f6nce tepede d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn teyit edilmesini beklemek. Y\u00fcksek hacimle (volume: i\u015flem miktar\u0131) sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f veya k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6nemli hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (moving average: belirli g\u00fcn fiyat ortalamas\u0131) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi klasik tepe sinyalleri izlenecek. Ama\u00e7, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar ve aylarda olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketi yakalamak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SOX\u2019ta RSI ve Elliott\/Fibo senaryosu \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor: 13.400\u201314.000 band\u0131na \u201cson ralli\u201d potansiyeli, ard\u0131ndan 9.600\u2019e sert d\u00fczeltme riski. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VXSOX opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47435","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47435","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47435"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47435\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47435"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47435"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47435"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}