Singapur\u2019un ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019si (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,6\u2019dan %6,0\u2019ya revize edildi. Mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (takvim ve d\u00f6nemsel etkilerden temizlenmi\u015f) \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcme de -%0,3\u2019ten %1,0\u2019a y\u00fckseltildi. Bu rakamlar, Bloomberg\u2019in piyasa beklentisi olan %5,2 ve %0,2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde geldi. Veriler, 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011findeki %5,7 y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve %1,3 mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00e7eyreklik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Geni\u015fleme; yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) odakl\u0131 talep ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc in\u015faat ve hizmetler faaliyetlerine ba\u011fland\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Ticaret ve Sanayi Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (MTI), tedarik zinciri aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 (\u00fcretim ve sevkiyat\u0131n bozulmas\u0131) ve y\u00fckselen emtia (petrol, metal, tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri gibi ham maddeler) fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2ra kar\u015f\u0131 uyard\u0131; teknoloji \u015firketlerinin yat\u0131r\u0131m ve sipari\u015f taahh\u00fctlerini azaltabilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Nisan T\u00dcFE (CPI, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi\u2014hanehalk\u0131 enflasyonu) y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,8 ile martla ayn\u0131 seviyede olurken, Bloomberg beklentisi %2,1\u2019di. Yak\u0131t ve enerji enflasyonu h\u0131zland\u0131; ancak enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 mal ve hizmetlerde genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yatay seyretti. Bu durum, \u201cikinci tur etkilerin\u201d (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccret ve di\u011fer fiyatlara yay\u0131l\u0131p kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon yaratmas\u0131) \u015fu a\u015famada s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalarda USD\/SGD (ABD dolar\u0131\/Singapur dolar\u0131) %0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,2770\u2019e geriledi. Bu hareket, daha yumu\u015fak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve zay\u0131flayan ABD dolar\u0131yla uyumlu. Ancak parite (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki kur) nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana 1,2650-1,2840 band\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 1\u00c7 GSYH verisine ra\u011fmen Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n beklenen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kazanmamas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. USD\/SGD 1,2650-1,2840 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da piyasalar\u0131n ba\u015fka ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 daha a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Yerel olumlu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u015fu an kurun y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tek ba\u015f\u0131na belirlemeye yetmiyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u201cbelirgin\u201d olumsuzluklara (headwinds\u2014b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran d\u0131\u015f ve i\u00e7 riskler) ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, para birimindeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Veriler de bu temkini destekliyor: Singapur\u2019un nisan ay\u0131 petrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yurt i\u00e7i ihracat\u0131 (NODX\u2014petrol hari\u00e7 ihracat; d\u0131\u015f talebin g\u00f6stergesi) ayl\u0131k bazda %1,2 gerileyerek tahminlerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu tablo, yapay zek\u00e2 talebinin ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 1\u00c7 performans\u0131n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyrekte ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla s\u00fcrmeyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel tarafta ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor. Bunun ana nedeni, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131; yani faizleri h\u0131zl\u0131 indirmeye yana\u015fmamas\u0131. ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek hizmet enflasyonu (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7; hizmet fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n e\u011filimi) yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,5 civar\u0131nda yap\u0131\u015fkan seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadede dolar\u0131n belirgin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek zor. Bu d\u0131\u015f etki, USD\/SGD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu yatay bant ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanma e\u011filimi) opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. USD\/SGD\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) son d\u00f6nemde %3,5 civar\u0131na geriledi; bu seviye 2024 sonundan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Paritenin mevcut bant i\u00e7inde kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle \u201cstrangle\u201d opsiyon stratejisinde sat\u0131\u015f (farkl\u0131 iki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda bir al\u0131m ve bir sat\u0131m opsiyonunu sat\u0131p prim geliri toplama) daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
1,2650-1,2840 band\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p k\u0131r\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izleyece\u011fiz. Bunu tetikleyebilecek ana risk, ABD enflasyon verilerinde s\u00fcrpriz bir de\u011fi\u015fim. Yak\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u00c7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) \u00f6nemli bir tetikleyici olacak. Beklentilerden belirgin sapma, band stratejisini h\u0131zla ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz revizyon: Singapur 1\u00c7 GSYH %6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi, \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1 oldu; T\u00dcFE %1,8\u2019de kald\u0131. Ancak MTI uyar\u0131lar\u0131, zay\u0131f NODX ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar USD\/SGD\u2019yi bantta tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47433","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47433"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47433\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}