USD\/JPY, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (basit hareketli ortalama: son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) deste\u011finden toparland\u0131 ve 159,00 seviyesinin yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 159,50\u2019ye do\u011fru ilerlerken %0,25\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldi. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda parite 159,38\u2019deydi. 158,79\u2019dan gelen tepkiyle 159,00\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, fiyat\u0131n 159,00\u2013160,00 band\u0131nda (aral\u0131kta) bir s\u00fcre daha yatay seyredece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Momentum (fiyat hareketinin g\u00fcc\u00fc) olumlu kal\u0131yor; RSI (G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: 0\u2013100 aras\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen, 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri genelde al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir) 50 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde. Ancak y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda olas\u0131 resmi m\u00fcdahalesi endi\u015fesiyle s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Parite yeniden 159,00\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarsa ilk izlenecek seviye 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 158,78; ard\u0131ndan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (son 100 g\u00fcn ortalamas\u0131) olan 157,62 gelir. Bu seviyelerin alt\u0131nda ise 6 May\u0131s dibi 155,04 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 159,00\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerindeki mevcut hareketini kritik bir test olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi (bullish trend: fiyat\u0131n genel olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyri), resmi m\u00fcdahale riskine kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele ediyor. Bu tablo, tek y\u00f6ne net bahis yapmay\u0131 daha riskli hale getiriyor. Piyasa 160,00 seviyesini zorlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; 160,00 hem psikolojik (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6zellikle takip etti\u011fi) hem de tarihsel a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli bir e\u015fik.<\/p>\n
Nisan sonu ve May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131 2024\u2019teki geli\u015fmeleri hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz: Yen 160\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra Japon yetkililer yeni savunmak i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 9,8 trilyon yen harcad\u0131. Bu m\u00fcdahale, paritede \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7t\u0131; piyasan\u0131n ne kadar \u00e7abuk tersine d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc fiyatlamaya bak\u0131nca, yetkililerin tetikte oldu\u011funu ve ek y\u00fckseli\u015flerin k\u0131r\u0131lgan olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumdan yararlanmak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) tercih ediyoruz. 159,50 ve 160,00 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun hak fiyat\u0131) call\u2019lar, y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcrerse kazanca kat\u0131lmay\u0131 sa\u011flar; en y\u00fcksek zarar \u00f6denen primle (premium: opsiyon i\u00e7in pe\u015fin \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. Bu, kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 spot pozisyon (kald\u0131ra\u00e7: k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck teminatla b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon alma; ani ters harekette zarar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr) ta\u015f\u0131maktan daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n
Temel unsur, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 (interest rate differential: iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) olmaya devam ediyor. Son ABD verileri, tahvil getirilerini (Treasury yields: ABD devlet tahvillerinin faizi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tuttu; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde. Japonya\u2019da ise politika faizi (Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n belirledi\u011fi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz) s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n. Bu \u201cpozitif ta\u015f\u0131ma\u201d (carry: y\u00fcksek faizli para biriminden getiri elde etme) diplerde al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ve pariteye taban destek veriyor.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money put: hen\u00fcz k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) da de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 158,78\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na ini\u015f ilk zay\u0131fl\u0131k sinyali olur. 157,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put almak, hem korunma (hedge: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) hem de yenin h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamadan tepkiyle 159 \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; 159,50-160 testte. RSI pozitif, ancak Japonya m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Destek 158,78\/157,62. Se\u00e7im: 159,50-160 call, 157,50 put koruma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47432","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47432"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47432\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}