Alt\u0131n, ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019daki savunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (\u00fclkeyi korumaya y\u00f6nelik askeri hamleler) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki faaliyetlerle ili\u015fkilendirilmesi sonras\u0131 yeniden artan \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (krizde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131k) talebiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 nedeniyle sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,60\u2019tan fazla geriledi. XAU\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.580 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.500 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. ABD Dolar Endeksi %0,17 art\u0131\u015fla 99,17\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken ABD hisseleri (borsa) erken saatlerdeki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: WTI (ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) %2,75 gerileyerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 94,34 dolara indi. Para politikas\u0131na duyarl\u0131 iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi (k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan getiri), yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 baz puan (0,04 puan) d\u00fc\u015ferek %4,074\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131, para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n (k\u0131sa vadeli faiz \u00fcr\u00fcnleri) y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %58 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 ise Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin %99 olas\u0131l\u0131kla sabit tutulaca\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde fiyatland\u0131. Hanehalk\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131: Conference Board T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi (t\u00fcketicinin ekonomiye bak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) may\u0131sta 93,1 oldu; beklenti 92 idi. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te ikisi, artan fiyatlar nedeniyle harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak Nikkei, ate\u015fkesin 60 g\u00fcn uzat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 30 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde may\u0131nlar\u0131 temizleyece\u011fini ve deniz ge\u00e7i\u015fi, ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretleri, n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ile yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kademeli gev\u015fetilmesine y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n da yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Odak \u015fimdi ABD konut verileri, Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri (uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcn talebini g\u00f6steren veri), 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019nin (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck) ikinci okumas\u0131, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri ve \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019ye (Fed\u2019in izledi\u011fi, oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tabloda piyasalar\u0131 y\u00f6nlendiren ana unsurun, alt\u0131n gibi geleneksel g\u00fcvenli limanlardan bile daha fazla ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 alt\u0131ndan \u00e7ok dolar\u0131n likiditesine (kolay al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131labilme) ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fine y\u00f6neltti. Bu da \u015fimdilik \u201cdolar y\u00fckseli\u015fi\u201d beklentisinin bask\u0131n tercih oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) ile alt\u0131n aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ters ili\u015fkiyi (biri y\u00fckselirken di\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimi) yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. CME Group verilerine g\u00f6re bu ili\u015fki \u00e7o\u011fu zaman -0,5 civar\u0131nda; yani genellikle z\u0131t y\u00f6nde hareket ediyorlar. CFTC\u2019nin (ABD vadeli i\u015flem denetleyicisi) Commitment of Traders \u2013 COT raporlar\u0131 (vadeli piyasalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren rapor) ise b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin (k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar) bu gerilimden \u00f6nce bile alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki net-uzun (al\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon fazlas\u0131) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u015fimdilik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasadaki belirsizlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131n ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseltti. CBOE Alt\u0131n Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (GVZ) 18,5\u2019e t\u0131rmanarak birka\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in (opsiyon\/vadeli gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar) alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Hedef, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (uzun vadeli trendi izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan fiyat ortalamas\u0131) civar\u0131nda, yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.387 dolar \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131\u201d (opsiyonda al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m\u0131n yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 fiyat) olabilir. Bu strateji, dolar y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr ve alt\u0131n son diplerinin alt\u0131na inerse s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (zarar\u0131 \u00f6nden belirli) kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de \u00f6nemli; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik \u00c7ekirdek PCE verisi \u00f6ncesinde enflasyon beklentilerini (gelecekteki fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na dair piyasa tahmini) zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. ABD EIA (Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi), enerji maliyetlerindeki kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlerin man\u015fet enflasyonu (genel enflasyon) belirgin etkiledi\u011fini daha \u00f6nce vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131ndaki bu ge\u00e7ici hafifleme, Fed\u2019e faizi sabit tutmak i\u00e7in daha fazla alan tan\u0131yor; ancak alt\u0131na \u201cenflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 koruma\u201d (fiyatlar artarken de\u011ferini korumas\u0131 beklenen varl\u0131k) talebini de azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik gerilim \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebini art\u0131rsa da kazanan dolar oldu: DXY y\u00fckselince alt\u0131n %1,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Petrol geriliyor, tahvil faizleri iniyor; piyasa Fed\u2019de \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201de kilitlendi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47431","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47431"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47431\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47431"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47431"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47431"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}