{"id":47426,"date":"2026-05-26T23:51:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T23:51:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-2-yillik-hazine-tahvili-ihalesinde-getiri-sicradi-sahin-fed-beklentileri-kisa-vadeli-fonlama-maliyetlerini-yukari-cekti\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T23:51:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T23:51:12","slug":"abd-2-yillik-hazine-tahvili-ihalesinde-getiri-sicradi-sahin-fed-beklentileri-kisa-vadeli-fonlama-maliyetlerini-yukari-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-2-yillik-hazine-tahvili-ihalesinde-getiri-sicradi-sahin-fed-beklentileri-kisa-vadeli-fonlama-maliyetlerini-yukari-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili ihalesinde getiri s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131: \u015eahin Fed beklentileri k\u0131sa vadeli fonlama maliyetlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Hazine\u2019sinin 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesi, en y\u00fcksek faiz (ihale faizi) olan %4,071 seviyesinde sonu\u00e7land\u0131. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki ihaledeki %3,812\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7, bu vadede Hazine\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetinin \u00f6nceki ihaleye g\u00f6re artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

De\u011fi\u015fimle birlikte ihale faizi, \u00f6nceki seviyenin 0,259 y\u00fczde puan \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k vade, Hazine tahvili piyasas\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentileri i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan izlenen bir g\u00f6sterge olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

\u015eahin Fed Beklentileri ve De\u011fi\u015fen Faiz G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilde beklenenden y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen bu ihale faizi \u00f6nemli bir sinyal. Piyasan\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n kalan\u0131nda daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya daha istekli) bir ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) beklentisini h\u0131zla fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Anlat\u0131, faiz indirimi beklentilerinden uzakla\u015f\u0131p yeniden \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu hareket, ge\u00e7en haftaki T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisini izledi. Veri, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda beklenmedik \u015fekilde %3,1\u2019e h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u00fcst\u00fcnde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Buna ek olarak, son istihdam raporunda 280 bin yeni tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (payrolls: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rdeki yeni i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Y\u00fckselen Faizlere Kar\u015f\u0131 Portf\u00f6y Konumland\u0131rma<\/h3>\n

Bu tabloya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (faiz futures: gelecekteki faiz seviyesine ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7) art\u0131r\u0131yoruz; \u00f6zellikle Aral\u0131k 2026 SOFR s\u00f6zle\u015fmesinde. SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate: teminatl\u0131 gecelik finansman faizi), ABD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin temel referanslar\u0131ndan biri ve bu s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler Fed beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fime do\u011frudan duyarl\u0131.<\/p>\n

Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed funds futures: Fed politika faizine ili\u015fkin piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) art\u0131k y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir tam faiz indirimi bile fiyatlam\u0131yor; bu, yaln\u0131zca iki ay \u00f6nce fiyatlanan \u00fc\u00e7 indirim beklentisine k\u0131yasla keskin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) gibi tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma) al\u0131yoruz. Bu strateji, faizlerin daha da y\u00fckselmesine (tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine) pozisyon al\u0131rken ayn\u0131 zamanda artan piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan (volatilite: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) da faydalanmay\u0131 hedefliyor. Bu durum, 2022 sonlar\u0131nda piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma s\u00fcrecini fiyatlamakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Hisse taraf\u0131nda, bu faiz ortam\u0131 \u201cuzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u201d hisseleri i\u00e7in do\u011frudan risk. Nasdaq-100 endeksinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019lerini (put spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonunun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) art\u0131rarak teknoloji maruziyetimizi hedge ediyoruz (hedge: fiyat hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 riski azaltma). Daha y\u00fcksek iskonto oranlar\u0131 (discount rate: gelecekteki nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcne indirgeyen oran) gelecekteki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye g\u00f6re fiyatlanan \u015firketlerin de\u011ferlemeleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesi faizi %4,071\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti artt\u0131. Piyasa 2026\u2019da \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201di fiyatl\u0131yor. SOFR k\u0131sa, IEF put, Nasdaq put spread ile korunma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47426","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47426"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47426\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47426"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47426"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47426"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}