Sterlin, G\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019da ABD\u2019nin yeni asker\u00ee hamlesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fczgan\u2019da ate\u015fkese uyum konusunda artan gerilimin ard\u0131ndan piyasalar\u0131n risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. GBP\/USD paritesi 1,3444 seviyeleri civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,43 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Washington\u2019u ate\u015fkesi ihlal etmekle su\u00e7lad\u0131 ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131 ise Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve ba\u015f m\u00fczakereci Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf\u2019\u0131n Doha\u2019da Katarl\u0131 yetkililerle yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan Tahran\u2019a d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. Bu durum diplomasinin tamamen devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterse de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n h\u0131zla sona erece\u011fine dair beklentileri s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Belirsizli\u011fin dolara olan talebi art\u0131rmas\u0131yla dolar daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,18 seviyesinde, yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,21 art\u0131da seyretti. (DXY: Dolar\u0131n, ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinden olu\u015fan sepete kar\u015f\u0131 genel de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks.) M\u00fczakerelerde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ba\u015fl\u0131k \u201cdondurulmu\u015f fonlar\u201d oldu: \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 24 milyar dolarl\u0131k varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fi, herhangi bir anla\u015fma a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra bunun en az yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hemen \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilece\u011fi belirtildi. Dolar ayr\u0131ca, enflasyonun %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir \u00e7izgide kalabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle destek buldu. (\u015eahin: Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan yakla\u015f\u0131m.) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin riskler de enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. (H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131: K\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi dar ge\u00e7it.) \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ise daha zay\u0131f veriler devlet tahvili getirilerini (gilt getirileri) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc ve piyasada \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik fiyatlamay\u0131 azaltt\u0131. (Gilt: \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvili.) ABD\u2019de Conference Board T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni May\u0131s\u2019ta 93,8\u2019den 93,1\u2019e gerilerken, piyasalar Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD PCE enflasyon verisini bekliyor. (PCE: Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi.)<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Fed ile BoE\u2019nin politika duru\u015fu aras\u0131ndaki fark \u015fu a\u015famada ana f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de enflasyonun son verilerde h\u00e2l\u00e2 hedefin \u00fczerinde, %3,1 seviyesinde olmas\u0131, y\u0131l bitmeden bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini destekliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyon %2,3\u2019e gerileyerek BoE\u2019ye faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda bekleme alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 k\u00fcresel belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u015fekilde \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6neltiyor. (G\u00fcvenli liman: Kriz ve belirsizlikte daha az riskli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131k.) Tarihsel olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik her risk, enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda sert y\u00fckseli\u015flere yol a\u00e7abiliyor. Bu durum hem g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle dolar\u0131 destekliyor hem de Fed\u2019in kontrol etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, vadesi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir-iki ay i\u00e7inde dolacak GBP\/USD \u201cput\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. (Put opsiyonu: Belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 verir; parite d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanabilir.) Bu strateji, sterlindeki olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 hedeflerken, en fazla kayb\u0131 opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar. (Prim: Opsiyon i\u00e7in pe\u015fin \u00f6denen bedel.) Mevcut jeopolitik ortam piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketleri ihtimalini y\u00fckseltiyor. (Oynakl\u0131k: Fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert dalgalanmas\u0131.)<\/p>\n
Bu hafta oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE enflasyon verisi. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri, Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyece\u011fi i\u00e7in dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Ayr\u0131ca BoE yetkililerinin yakla\u015fan konu\u015fmalar\u0131, daha temkinli duru\u015fun teyidi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyon y\u00fckseldi, piyasa dolara ka\u00e7t\u0131: Sterlin %0,43 gerileyip 1,3444\u2019e indi. DXY 99,18\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Fed \u015fahin kalabilir. BoE beklentisi zay\u0131f, PCE kritik. Opsiyonla korunma g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47424\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}