Memorial Day tatil kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD hisseleri yeniden i\u015fleme a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rken S&P 500 ve Nasdaq Composite g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeni rekor seviyeleri g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3 geriledi; Dow vadeli i\u015flemleri de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hacimli gece seans\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyretti. Ayr\u0131\u015fmada \u00e7ip hisselerinin ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 momentum etkili oldu: Micron %17 s\u0131\u00e7rayarak piyasa de\u011ferinde (\u015firketin borsadaki toplam de\u011feri) 1 trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Seagate ve Western Digital de y\u00fckseldi. Fiyat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 (hisselerin endeksteki etkisi fiyata g\u00f6re belirlenen) Dow ise sanayi ve finans a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131, y\u00fcksek beta (piyasaya g\u00f6re daha sert hareket eden) yar\u0131 iletken (\u00e7ip) hisselerine daha az maruz kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle geride kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dow vadeli i\u015flemleri erken saatlerde 50.800 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, piyasa \u00f6ncesinde 50.500\u2019e do\u011fru geriledi; daha \u00f6nce 51.000 seviyesinden gev\u015femi\u015fti. Stokastik RSI (momentum g\u00f6stergesi; a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgelerini izler) g\u00f6stergesi band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na yak\u0131nd\u0131. Enerjide West Texas Intermediate (WTI, ABD tipi ham petrol) yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 93 dolar civar\u0131na inerken, Brent (Kuzey Denizi referans petrol\u00fc) \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyine y\u00f6nelik ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 y\u00fckselerek 100 dolar seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Faiz beklentileri de de\u011fi\u015fti: CME Group FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemlerden t\u00fcretilen faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi) art\u0131k temmuzda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %13 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak PCE verisi (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3, man\u015fet PCE\u2019nin (genel) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8 gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasada belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Nasdaq 100 may\u0131sta %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselirken, Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi ay\u0131 art\u0131da kapatmakta zorlan\u0131yor. Bu tablo, y\u00fckseli\u015fin geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7ten \u00e7ok teknoloji hisselerindeki co\u015fkuya dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc. 2021\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda birka\u00e7 dev teknoloji hissesi, piyasan\u0131n geneline yay\u0131lan zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre g\u00f6lgeledi; ard\u0131ndan 2022\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f geldi. Dow\u2019un sanayi ve finans \u015firketlerinden olu\u015fan yap\u0131s\u0131, onu reel ekonomi i\u00e7in daha iyi bir g\u00f6sterge haline getiriyor; \u015fu an uyar\u0131 sinyali veriyor.<\/p>\n
Dow vadeli i\u015flemlerinin 50.500 seviyesine do\u011fru istikrarl\u0131 gerilemesi, zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde vadesi dolacak \u015fekilde SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF\u2019i (DIA; Dow\u2019u izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Vadeli i\u015flemler 50.800 diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131k\u00e7a a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasas\u0131 da bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Brent\u2019in 100 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla WTI aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n (spread; iki fiyat aras\u0131ndaki fark) a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, tedarik zinciri risklerine i\u015faret ediyor; enflasyon tahminleri bu riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hesapl\u0131yor olabilir. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan gelen raporlara g\u00f6re gemi sigortas\u0131 primleri son 48 saatte %15 artt\u0131; jeopolitik gerilimin azalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm dikkat per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc PCE enflasyon verisinde. Ge\u00e7en hafta T\u00dcFE (CPI; T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, t\u00fcketici enflasyonu g\u00f6stergesi) beklentinin \u00fczerinde %3,6 gelmi\u015fti. PCE\u2019nin de y\u00fcksek gelmesi, Fed\u2019i daha s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fa itebilir. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re temmuzda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu hafta %13\u2019ten yakla\u015f\u0131k %18\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, veri \u00f6ncesinde oynakl\u0131k (volatilite; fiyatlar\u0131n dalgalanma \u015fiddeti) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken Dow\u2019da k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. 50.800\u2019e do\u011fru olas\u0131 toparlanmalar\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonu art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz. PCE\u2019nin y\u00fcksek gelmesi, endeksi 50.000 psikolojik (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6nem verdi\u011fi yuvarlak seviye) deste\u011fini test etmeye itebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Wall Street\u2019te rekor co\u015fkusu perde mi? S&P 500 ve Nasdaq zirvede, Dow geriliyor. \u00c7ip rallisi ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Brent 100$\u2019a yak\u0131n, Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. PCE kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47423","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47423"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47423\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47423"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47423"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47423"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}