Euro, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ate\u015f a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan (g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u00fcrse de) Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Kuzey Amerika i\u015flemlerinde zay\u0131flad\u0131. EUR\/USD 1,1622 seviyesinde ve %0,15 eksideydi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) %0,21 art\u0131\u015fla 99,21\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Petrol ters y\u00f6nde hareket etti: WTI (ABD ham petrol\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi) %2,75 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 94,34 dolara geriledi. Tahvil piyasalar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etti; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi (k\u0131sa vadeli devlet bor\u00e7lanma faizi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %4,074\u2019e indi (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, 0,01). ABD verilerinde Conference Board t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni May\u0131s\u2019ta geriledi; endeks 93,1\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, yine de Bloomberg anketindeki 92 beklentisinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa taraf\u0131nda veri takvimi sakindi; ancak bir ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) yetkilisi Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 savundu. Reuters anketine g\u00f6re faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleyen ekonomistlerin oran\u0131 %85. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski g\u00fcndemde: 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (YoY: bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re) %1,3\u2019ten %0,8\u2019e geriledi. Grafiklerde EUR\/USD 1,1618\u2019de g\u00f6sterildi; parite 1,1659 civar\u0131ndaki 50, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki fiyatlar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131, trendi izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) alt\u0131nda. Destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunabilece\u011fi seviye) 1,1576\u2019da, daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 1,1265 civar\u0131nda. RSI (14) (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik g\u00f6sterge; 14 son d\u00f6neme bakar) 43 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle piyasada klasik bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d hareketiyle ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nelim g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu jeopolitik gerilim \u015fu anda ana belirleyici ve EUR\/USD paritesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itiyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (vadeli i\u015flemler ve opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyatlar\u0131n daha sert ve s\u0131k dalgalanmas\u0131) haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99,00 \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, \u015fimdilik g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin di\u011fer unsurlar\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. ABD t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin 93,1\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi ekonomi i\u00e7in olumsuz, ancak piyasadaki anl\u0131k endi\u015fe dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Bu nedenle euroda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan i\u015flem) almaya temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik \u015foklar d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r; CBOE EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ) (euro\/dolar i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) benzer d\u00f6nemlerde s\u0131k\u00e7a \u00e7ift haneli oranlarda y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Bu nedenle EUR\/USD\u2019de straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz (straddle: ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put alarak, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan fiyat\u0131n sert hareketinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen strateji). Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00f6n\u00fcn belirsiz oldu\u011fu ortamda hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali vermesi tabloyu daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor. Bu normalde euro i\u00e7in destekleyicidir; ancak Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,8\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi bir \u00e7eli\u015fki yarat\u0131yor. Piyasa, ECB\u2019nin durgunluk riskine ra\u011fmen faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131ndan endi\u015fe ediyor; bu da eurodaki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale geliyor ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. Son veriler Euro B\u00f6lgesi imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralma, \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyali) 49,5\u2019e geriledi\u011fini ve daralmaya i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. ABD\u2019de ise \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (Core PCE: g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %3,5 ile Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, zay\u0131flayan Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan 1,1659 b\u00f6lgesi EUR\/USD i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlanabilece\u011fi seviye). Bu seviyede veya \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 (call satmak: prim geliri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade eden i\u015flem) de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 1,1576 deste\u011finin net k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 (put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan opsiyon) daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilme hedefiyle g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fmaya ra\u011fmen petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 94 dolar civar\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi, piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli arz \u015fokundan \u00e7ok k\u00fcresel talepte zay\u0131flama endi\u015fesini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, zay\u0131f ABD t\u00fcketici verileri ve Avrupa\u2019daki yava\u015flama ile uyumlu. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, dolar gibi g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klarda kalmay\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebini art\u0131rd\u0131: DXY 99,21\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karken euro zay\u0131flad\u0131, EUR\/USD 1,1622. WTI d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. ECB faiz sinyali b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayg\u0131s\u0131yla g\u00f6lgeli; teknikte 1,1659 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47421","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47421"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47421\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47421"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47421"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47421"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}