BNP Paribas, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH (Gayri Safi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini 2026\u2019da %0,5 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu oran, daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve \u00fcretim maliyetlerinin faaliyeti bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla 2025\u2019teki %1,1 seviyesinden gerilemeye i\u015faret ediyor. Enflasyon, 2022\u2019den bu yana genel olarak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (y\/y) %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyretti ve en az 2028\u2019e kadar bu d\u00fczeyde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), 2024\u2019te para politikas\u0131ndaki deste\u011fi (gev\u015fek duru\u015fu) azaltmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 ve daha \u00f6nce faizi s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika faizini \u015fu ana kadar %0,75\u2019e y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
Banka, BoJ\u2019nin normalle\u015fmeyi (kriz sonras\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli d\u00f6nemden kademeli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyor. Buna 2026\u2019n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde (Q2 2026) 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp; faiz oran\u0131nda %0,25 puan) bir art\u0131\u015f da dahil. Faizlerin 2027 sonuna kadar %2,0 nihai seviyeye (d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen seviye) yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda USD\/JPY\u2019nin (dolar\/yen) 2026 d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte (Q4 2026) 160 civar\u0131nda dengelenmesi ve 2027\u2019de bu seviyede kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. GBP\/USD\u2019nin (sterlin\/dolar) ise Q4 2026\u2019da 1,35 olmas\u0131 ve 2027\u2019ye benzer bir seyirle girmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l %0,5\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu, 2025\u2019teki %1,1\u2019e k\u0131yasla belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve artan \u00fcretim maliyetleri, hem \u015firketler hem de t\u00fcketiciler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Son veriler, Tokyo \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (Core CPI; g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 tutularak hesaplanan t\u00fcketici enflasyonu ve erken sinyal veren g\u00f6sterge) %2,4\u2019te kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, enflasyonun iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir Merkez Bankas\u0131 hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve para politikas\u0131nda ek ad\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
26 May\u0131s 2026 itibar\u0131yla, bu \u00e7eyrek bitmeden BoJ\u2019den 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor. B\u00f6ylece politika faizi %1,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu ad\u0131m, 2024\u2019te ba\u015flayan normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin devam\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bankan\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc, 2027 sonuna kadar %2,0 civar\u0131nda bir nihai faize ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
Kur cephesinde bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yenin sert de\u011fer kayb\u0131 d\u00f6neminin geride kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/JPY\u2019nin y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda 160 seviyesine yak\u0131n bir dengede kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Buna g\u00f6re, opsiyon stratejileriyle (opsiyon; belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) kurdaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisine pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, BoJ\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve likiditeyi azaltma) d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinin ilk a\u015famalar\u0131nda yen her zaman hemen ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmedi. 2000\u2019lerin ortas\u0131-sonunda da, piyasa s\u0131f\u0131r faiz politikas\u0131ndan (faizin \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\/s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n tutulmas\u0131) \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlarken kurda dalgal\u0131 ve bant i\u00e7inde hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, yenin \u015fimdilik dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 160\u2019\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7lenmekte zorlanabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkatler BoJ\u2019da: BNP Paribas, Japonya\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2026\u2019da %0,5\u2019e inece\u011fini, enflasyonun %2 \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Faiz Q2\u2019de +25 bp, 2027\u2019de %2; USD\/JPY 160.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47418","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47418"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47418\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47418"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47418"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47418"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}