Kanada dolar\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti. USD\/CAD 1,3800 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Scotiabank\u2019\u0131n \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201d (temel ekonomik g\u00f6stergelere dayal\u0131 makul kur seviyesi) tahmini 1,3672\u2019de bulunuyor. Tatil etkisiyle ya\u015fanan yatayla\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan fiyat hareketi s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k kald\u0131. Son y\u00fckseli\u015f denemesi, 1,3812\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (son 200 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131; uzun vadeli e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) \u00fczerine kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde ta\u015fmakta zorland\u0131. \u0130\u015flem aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3800\u20131,3820 band\u0131nda darald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 ve g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6stergeler) de hareketin duraksamas\u0131yla zay\u0131flad\u0131. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; 0\u2013100 aras\u0131 de\u011fer al\u0131r, y\u00fckseli\u015f\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterir) 60\u2019lar\u0131n alt b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru geriledi. Parite a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nerse, bir sonraki destek seviyesi 1,3750 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; bu seviye 1,3751\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (orta vadeli e\u011filimi izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan ortalama) ile \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise 1,3900\u2019e kadar direncin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD kuru 1,3800 civar\u0131nda, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131na yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Temel modeller adil de\u011ferin 1,3672\u2019ye daha yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu da mevcut seviyelerde Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferlenmi\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ABD dolar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin g\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu zay\u0131flama, ABD\u2019den gelen son verilerle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geliyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD \u00c7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi (G\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 tutularak hesaplanan; ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n en \u00e7ok izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7 geldi. Beklenti %2,8\u2019di. Bu tablo, piyasalar\u0131n temmuz ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %30\u2019a indirmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131; ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda bu oran %50\u2019nin \u00fczerindeydi.<\/p>\n
Kanada ekonomisi ise emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi referans petrol fiyat\u0131) may\u0131s boyunca varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ve Kanada\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 (\u00fclkenin ihra\u00e7 etti\u011fi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithal ettiklerine g\u00f6re g\u00f6reli g\u00fcc\u00fc) destekledi. Bu durum Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi sabit tutma duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d konumundaki Fed ile politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik diren\u00e7te ya\u015fanan duraksama ve temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 1,3750 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilme ihtimali \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 1,3900 seviyesinde \u201ctavan\u201d hedefli call opsiyon spreadi (al\u0131m opsiyonunda iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla kurulan, maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ve getiriyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, yukar\u0131 potansiyelin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan yararlanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. 1,3750 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put (sat\u0131m opsiyonu; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazan\u0131r) almak ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften daha do\u011frudan faydalanma yolu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD 1,3800\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; Scotiabank adil de\u011feri 1,3672. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131, momentum zay\u0131f. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 1,3750 destek, yukar\u0131da 1,3900 tavan; Fed\u2019in gev\u015feyen beklentisi loonie\u2019yi destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47417\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}