Conference Board\u2019un (CB) ABD T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi, nisan ay\u0131ndaki 93,8 seviyesinden may\u0131sta 93,1\u2019e geriledi. Nisan verisi de 92,8\u2019den 93,8\u2019e yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. Bu veriler, hanehalk\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Mevcut i\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve mevcut i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na (istihdam bulman\u0131n kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi) ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeler ge\u00e7en aya g\u00f6re daha olumsuz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, alt\u0131 ay sonras\u0131na dair i\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 beklentileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 iyile\u015firken, gelir beklentileri zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda ABD Dolar Endeksi yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanarak 99,00 seviyesinin hafif \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hareket, Ortado\u011fu krizi kaynakl\u0131 belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken dolar\u0131n \u00f6nceki seanstaki zay\u0131f seyrinden toparlanmas\u0131yla geldi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki 93,1\u2019e gerilemeyi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasalarda dalgalanman\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n s\u0131k ve sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) artabilece\u011fine dair bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcketiciler gelece\u011fe dair bir miktar iyimserlik korusa da mevcut ko\u015fullar ve gelir taraf\u0131ndaki alg\u0131 bozuldu. Bu t\u00fcr \u201cikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f\u201d duyarl\u0131l\u0131k, piyasan\u0131n hangi hik\u00e2yeyi sat\u0131n alaca\u011f\u0131na karar vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik VIX\u2019te (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi; \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak da bilinir) zaten g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: VIX son bir ayda %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 19 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, oynakl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (de\u011feri dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak; sert hareketin y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z fayda sa\u011flar) veya VIX al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. B\u00f6ylece piyasan\u0131n iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket etmesi durumunda pozisyon fayda sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Gelir beklentilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, t\u00fcketiciye ba\u011fl\u0131 \u015firketler i\u00e7in do\u011frudan risk. Perakende sat\u0131\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda zaten %0,5\u2019e kadar yava\u015flam\u0131\u015fken, t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 harcama (zorunlu olmayan harcama) odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) ile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunma sa\u011flanabilir. Bu, hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u015firketlerde olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6y\u00fc korur.<\/p>\n
Ortado\u011fu belirsizli\u011fi ortam\u0131nda ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99,00\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, \u201cg\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131p daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme) i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunuyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, tarihsel olarak ABD\u2019li \u00e7ok uluslu \u015firketlerin k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelirlerin dolar kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015febilir) ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir. Dolar \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu, uluslararas\u0131 risklere kar\u015f\u0131 pratik bir korunma arac\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimler enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ana belirleyicilerinden. Brent petrol bu ay %7 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Arz kayg\u0131lar\u0131 (\u00fcretim\/ta\u015f\u0131ma aksamalar\u0131) artarsa fiyatlar daha da y\u00fckselebilir. Bu nedenle petrol ve enerji hisselerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, portf\u00f6yde riskten korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu daha zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici verisi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (Fed\u2019in politika faizine dair beklentiyi yans\u0131tan vadeli kontratlar) bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %35\u2019e indiriyor; bu oran ge\u00e7en ay %60\u2019t\u0131. Artan politika belirsizli\u011fi, faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde opsiyonlarla (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flem stratejilerine konu edilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni may\u0131sta 93,1\u2019e geriledi; mevcut ko\u015fullar bozulurken gelir beklentisi zay\u0131flad\u0131. Dolar 99\u2019u a\u015ft\u0131, VIX 19\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Petrol 91 dolar \u00fcst\u00fc; opsiyonlarla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47414"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47414\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}